Hospitalizations from the recent spike in Covid infections may be “up” based on the latest numbers, according to one of Britain’s leading statisticians.
The total number of people in hospital in England who tested positive for Covid-19 stood at 11,878 in the seven days to Wednesday, a 33% increase on the previous week.
Dr. David Spiegelhalter said cases are still growing more broadly and that there is a “huge undercount” because testing is not happening as much as it was.
More than 2 million people have had the virus, according to the Covid-19 Contagion Survey, the largest regular survey of coronavirus infections and antibodies, which Spiegelhalter described as one of the most reliable sources of data, although he stressed it was from several weeks ago .
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It’s high. It’s not as high as it was – it’s up to 8% this year, but I think we need to look at hospitalisations.”
“They are rising sharply and are almost at the level of previous peaks this year. I think there are some indications that they may be complementary.”
About a quarter of those admitted to hospital were found to have caught it in hospital, he said, but added that all needed extra care and this was fueling staffing problems in the NHS.
“Fortunately, there is no increase in those breathing. That doesn’t mean there aren’t severe cases,” he added.
The latest figures are seen as evidence of how the virus is becoming more widespread, with the potential to add further pressure to hospital staff already trying to clear a record backlog of operations.
The current wave is being driven by the Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5, which are now the dominant strains in the UK and are more transmissible than the BA.2 variant, which caused infection rates to hit a record high earlier in the year.
The hospitalization rate in England of people who tested positive for Covid-19 stood at 14.6 per 100,000 last week, up from 11.1 the previous week, according to the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA).
Intensive care unit (ICU) admissions were 0.4 per 100,000 compared with 0.3. Both figures are the highest since mid-April.
Health experts warned that the numbers were likely to continue to rise in July, driven by a “significant amount” of weakening immunity among older people.
Dr. Spiegelhalter said the trend is an increase in non-Covid excess deaths in hospitals — instead of homes — and it is not clear why this is happening.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show there were 1,540 more deaths in the week ending June 24, although only around 10% were due to Covid-19.
“Some people are saying that maybe this is the beginning of the impact of the pandemic measures and the disruption to health care and people’s use of health care,” Dr. Spiegelhalter said.
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