The United Kingdom is battling a fifth wave of Covid as infections increase and major summer events could lead to an increase in cases even more, experts have warned.
Coronavirus cases have risen sharply in recent weeks, with the latest figures showing that 1.7 million people tested positive in the United Kingdom, up 23 percent from the previous week. The increase is due to the latest variants BA.4 and BA.5, sub-variants of Omicron.
There are fears that the return of mass events for the first time since the pandemic – such as Glastonbury over the weekend, the Notting Hill Carnival and the Edinburgh Festival in August – will lead to a continuation of the Covid spiral.
The initial jump came after the jubilee weekend celebrations earlier in June, with a 43 percent increase in infections due to the four-day celebration of the 70th anniversary of the queen’s coronation.
Health officials have warned that the jump in cases will have a significant impact on the NHS, which is “already on its knees”.
Covid hospitalizations rose 31 percent during the week, rising at a rate higher than Omicron’s previous outbreak in March.
The platinum anniversary was associated with an increase in cases
(Getty Images)
Professor Tim Spector of the ZOE Covid Symptom Survey said the fifth wave of coronavirus had already begun. “We’re in a wave right now,” he said, “targeting a quarter of a million cases a day, it’s already a wave.”
He added that summer events could “potentially have a big effect” on Covid’s rates.
“Events like Glastonbury will increase the number of cases, but the question is how much they represent,” Professor Spector told The Independent.
“We reassured everyone that most people don’t think there’s a problem with Covid right now, most people don’t wear masks or even worry about cold-like symptoms.
He added that it was not clear how the festivals, usually attended by younger people, would affect the rest of the population, adding that a calm attitude towards Covid could also play a role in increasing the infection rate.
“We are targeting a quarter of a million cases a day,” he said. “The question is whether it stops and comes back again, everyone predicts an autumn wave, but I don’t think anyone predicted this summer wave – that’s the difference.
“None of the modeling allows this, it does not take into account the effect of the BA.5 variant, which is dominant now.”
Professor Azim Majid, head of primary care and public health at Imperial College London, also agreed that option BA.5 is leading to a new wave in the UK that could be exacerbated by major developments.
A calm attitude towards Covid can also lead to levels of infection
(PA)
“In the previous two years [2020 and 2021], we saw an increase in the percentage of Covid-19 later in the summer, “Professor Majid told The Independent. “Covid-19 levels in the UK appear to be rising again, and increased mixing of people – especially if this is happening in poorly ventilated indoor areas – will maintain high levels of infection.
Professor Majid stressed that vaccination still offers good protection against death and serious illness from Omicron variants.
But Professor Spector warned that BA.5’s ability to evade immunity means that more people can be infected, including those who have already had other options.
“There will definitely be disruptions this summer, we know that four out of 100 people have this [variant] for more than a month and many people get sick for a long time. I don’t think many people will die from this, but it has great social and economic consequences, “said Professor Spector.
“Having our NHS already on its knees, working as if it were in the middle of winter, we now get up to 1,000 hospitalizations a day, that’s not good news, that number will rise,” he added.
Of the 1.7 million current infections, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says 1.3 million tested positive in the week ending June 18 in England – a 21% increase over the previous week. Scotland saw the largest increase of 42 per cent with 250,700 infected; 68,500 in Wales and 59,900 in Northern Ireland.
Professor Linda Bauld, a public health expert at the University of Edinburgh, agreed that option BA.5 would cause disruption in the coming weeks.
She said events, especially indoors with poor ventilation, would lead to infections in the way the European Championship tournament did last summer.
Gathering of crowds on the Spanish Steps at the northwest corner of Wembley, hours before the start of the Euro 2020 final
(PA Media)
More than 9,000 infections were linked to the 2021 games, as monitored by the government’s mass event testing scheme, and scientists at the time said the tournament “generated significant public health risks.”
“I don’t think we’re likely to see a huge rise in the species we saw at the end of Christmas last year, for example,” Professor Bold told The Independent. “But we are already in the middle of another increase in infections, and the way the numbers have been moving over the last three weeks, I expect those numbers to continue to rise for a while.
“Then they’ll probably come back again, and then we’ll worry about the fall again.”
In a briefing Friday, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) warned that Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 now make up more than half of all new Covid cases.
Dr Susan Hopkins, Chief Medical Adviser at UKHSA, said: “It is clear that the growing prevalence of Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 has significantly increased the number of cases we have seen in recent weeks.
“We are seeing an increase in hospital admissions in line with community infections, but vaccinations continue to keep intensive care admissions and deaths low.
Add Comment