Covid vaccines reduced the number of deaths worldwide by 20 million in the first year after they were available, according to the first major analysis.
The study, which modeled the spread of the disease in 185 countries and territories between December 2020 and December 2021, found that without Covid vaccines, 31.4 million people would have died and that 19.8 million of those deaths had been avoided. The study is the first attempt to quantify the number of deaths prevented directly and indirectly as a result of Covid-19 vaccinations.
“We knew there would be a large number, but I didn’t think it would reach 20 million deaths in the first year alone,” said Oliver Watson of Imperial College London, who co-authored the study.
Many more deaths could have been prevented if access to vaccines had been more equal worldwide. Nearly 600,000 additional deaths – one in five of Covid’s deaths in low-income countries – could be prevented if the World Health Organization’s global goal of vaccinating 40% of each country’s population by the end of 2021 was completed, the study found.
“Our findings show that millions of lives have probably been saved by providing vaccines to people everywhere, regardless of their wealth,” Watson said. “But more could have been done.”
He said that while providing vaccines around the world, especially to high-risk individuals, remains vital, many parts of the world with low vaccine coverage have high levels of immunity due to previous infection, which means the possibility of saving lives is narrowed.
Since the first Covid vaccine was administered outside a clinical trial on December 8, 2020, almost two-thirds of the world’s population has received at least one dose of the vaccine, and the Covid-19 Global Vaccine Access Initiative has facilitated access to affordable vaccines for countries. with lower incomes to try to reduce inequalities.
The study, published in the journal Lancet Infectious Diseases, uses official data – or estimates when official data were not available – for Covid deaths, as well as the total number of deaths in each country. Excess mortality is the difference between the total number of people who died from all causes and the number of deaths expected from past data, and in many countries these figures give the most reliable picture of Covid’s deaths.
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These assays were compared with a hypothetical non-vaccine alternative scenario. This means that the figures reflect the direct protection of vaccines for individuals, as well as the wider benefits for the health system, such as the effect on mortality from more hospital beds available.
The figures probably represent the upper end of the number of deaths avoided if vaccines were not available, as blocking policies, for example, would be different.
Prof. Azra Ghani, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, said: “Our study demonstrates the enormous benefits of Covid-19 vaccines in reducing global deaths. Although the intense focus on the pandemic has now shifted, it is important to ensure that the most vulnerable people in all parts of the world are protected from the continued circulation of Covid-19 and other major diseases that continue to disproportionately affect the poorest. ”
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