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7:20 a.m. – Approaching rains from the northwest, but still nothing to worry about
Looking at radar in the northwest, as well as short-term computer models, we see showers still pending through the area currently in Western Pennsylvania, Western Maryland and Western Virginia. But there are no serious warnings of thunderstorms and nothing seems particularly intense. You may need your umbrella in the middle until late in the morning, and we can’t rule out a built-in stronger storm while this activity passes, but the threat of severe weather seems low. And the commute to work for the next hour or two looks good.
We will post another update around 9am
5:45 a.m. – So far, the approaching rains and storms do not seem too intense, but we will watch this morning
The complex of storms that unfolded Monday night in the Ohio Valley – which we feared could be severe as it passed through the region – did not hold up terribly well. Most of the work involved in West Virginia and Pennsylvania is not heavy at the moment. Short-term models still show that we need to see rain and storms this morning. We can still see some heavy rainfall and it is possible that some storms are strong locally. But the widespread outbreak of a severe storm seems unlikely.
In terms of weather, there is now a thin line of rain passing north of the ring road that will come out quickly. Additional rainfall and storms may be approaching between 8 am and noon.
Somewhat subjective assessment of the time of day, on a scale from zero to 10.
3/10: A tumultuous start to test our Tuesday audacity.
- today: Stormy morning, partly afternoon sun, humid. Maximum: 80-86.
- Tonight: Partly cloudy, warm and gloomy. Low levels: 66-73.
- tomorrow: Mostly sunny, cloudy, chance of a light storm. Maximum values: 87-91.
A noisy story begins our Tuesday as potentially strong thunderstorms erupt this morning. Opportunities for thunderstorms last from Wednesday to Friday, but should be more isolated to scattered in nature, with mostly humid heat and periods of sunshine. The cold front at the weekend opens the door to refreshingly low humidity and beautiful, cooler than a normal holiday weekend.
Today (Tuesday): Strong thunderstorms early in the middle of the morning can cause rainfall and destructive winds. Think about the time of your trip to work before or after these storms. Late in the morning until around noon there may be prolonged rainfall or additional thunderstorms. Precipitation can be a total of about 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Partial afternoon sun can be seen with maximum temperatures from low to mid 80’s and high humidity (dew points close to 70). Wind from the north with a speed of about 5 to 10 mph, except for gusts around storms. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Partly cloudy, cloudy and warm, with low values from the upper 60’s to the low 70’s. Low probability of an isolated thunderstorm. Light breeze from the east at a speed of 7 mph. Confidence: Medium-High
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Tomorrow (Wednesday): Mostly sunny and hotter with maximum temperatures from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Humidity is in the moderate range with dew points in the mid-1960s. A light breeze from the southeast is blowing at a speed of about 5 mph. Again, a low probability of a thunderstorm in the afternoon to evening. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy and again moderately cloudy, with the lows reaching the upper 60s to the low 70s. Likelihood of isolated rainfall or a thunderstorm late at night. Confidence: Medium-High
Thursday you should see mostly cloudy skies and a little less heat, with maximum values until the 80’s, along with moderate humidity against the background of scattered afternoon rain and thunderstorms. Warm and gloomy evening on Thursday, with the possibility of precipitation and thunderstorms, with low values ranging from the upper 60’s to low 70’s. Confidence: Medium
Friday starts from cloudy and cloudy side with possible isolated to scattered precipitation and thunderstorms. But partial sunny skies can arrive at noon and afternoon, with maximum values from the upper 80’s to the lower 90’s. Humidity should begin to decrease later in the afternoon, thanks to the passing cold front. Friday night should become mostly clear with lower humidity and low levels ranging until the 60s. Confidence: Medium
IN holiday weekend looks like a perfect summer situation. Imagine mostly sunny to sunny skies with maximum values from the upper 70s to the low 80s on weekends, with closer to the normal mid 80s on Monday, as partly sunny skies prevail. Humidity is comfortably low on weekends, with a slight increase on Monday. Mostly clear on Saturday and Sunday nights, with lows from the 60s for the city, but in the outer suburbs there should be cooler lows in the mid to over 50s. Confidence: Medium
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