Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group was joking with a new left-wing alliance led by the hard-line Jean-Luc Melenchon in the first round of parliamentary elections, according to early forecasts.
The frantic final week of the campaign will begin on the Monday before the second round, as Macron’s centrists still hope to overtake, but face uncertainty as to whether they can win a decisive majority in parliament.
Macron’s centrist alliance, the Ensemble (Together), was expected to take 25.2% of the vote, according to Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France Télévisions. A historic alliance of left-wing parties, led by Melenchon’s France Unconquered party and including the Socialists and the Greens, was in exactly the same shape – challenging Macron.
Sunday turnout was estimated at a record low of about 47%, according to opinion polls, after candidates described the mood among voters as angry and frustrated with the political class. Government spokeswoman Olivia Gregoire said low turnout was “the key issue”.
Macron, who was re-elected president in April against the far-right Marine Le Pen, needs a majority for his centrist group in the National Assembly to have a free hand on his proposals for tax cuts and changes in the social system.
The results of the parliament will determine the balance of power for Macron’s second term, determining his ability to pursue domestic policies such as raising the retirement age and reviewing the benefits system.
Melenchon’s alliance – known as Nupes or the New People’s Environmental and Social Alliance – seeks to increase its seats and reduce Macron’s centrist numbers. The coalition’s platform includes a significant increase in the minimum wage, lowering the retirement age to 60 and freezing basic food and energy prices to tackle the cost of living crisis.
The constituency-based voting system for the French Parliament means that the exact number of seats for each group remains difficult to predict. The form of the new parliament will become clear only after the second round on June 19th.
Based on early estimates, Ispos predicts that Macron’s centrist alliance will win the largest share of the 577-seat parliament – between 255 and 295 seats. This suggests that there is a chance that Macron’s centrists will not reach an absolute majority, which requires 289 seats.
If Macron’s party and his centrist allies fail to secure a majority, it would be a failure for the president and could lead to confusing deals with the right-wing parties in parliament or an unwanted change in the cabinet.
The left-wing alliance could take between 150 and 190 seats, according to Ipsos.
Macron and ministers stepped up the campaign this week, warning that Melenchon is a dangerous and extremist who will kill the European Union, an “ally with Russia” and add to the “world chaos”.
Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party, which won eight seats in 2017, hopes to win at least 15 seats this time, which will allow it to form a parliamentary group and gain more visibility in the National Assembly. Ipsos estimates that the party could take up to 45 seats. Although Le Pen is second in the presidential election with a historic high of 41%, the system of voting in the first place for parliament has historically proved difficult for her party in the legislative elections.
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Le Pen, from the fortress of Henin-Beaumont in northern France, called on her constituents to come for her party against what she called Macron’s “brutal” style of politics. She said France was suffering because of the cost of living crisis, as well as the treatment of English fans in the Champions League final in Paris, which was seen as detrimental to France’s image abroad.
The first weeks of the new government were tense on the eve of the parliamentary elections, with strikes in hospitals and concerns about the cost of living, and Macron was accused by Ukraine of being too lenient with Russia.
Macron’s new disability minister, Damien Abad, has faced two allegations of rape – which he has denied – but sparked street demonstrations on women’s rights while new Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne has not yet made an impact.
Macron has made it clear that the ministers running in the election – including Bourne, who is making her first attempt to win a seat – will have to step down if they lose.
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