WASHINGTON — As Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement Friday to unblock Ukrainian grain exports, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan played the role of benevolent statesman.
Sitting next to the UN secretary-general at an Ottoman palace in Istanbul, Erdogan said the deal, which Turkey helped broker, would benefit “all of humanity.”
President Biden’s administration welcomed the deal, which could ease a global food crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and blockade of its ports. Officials expressed skepticism about whether Russia was acting in good faith and Russian missiles struck the Ukrainian port city of Odessa less than a day after the pact was signed. Still, a White House spokesman praised Mr Erdogan for his efforts.
But privately, Mr. Erdogan remains a source of considerable irritation to Biden administration officials.
Days before he presides over the grain deal, the Turkish autocrat renewed his warning that he could veto NATO plans to admit Sweden and Finland as members in the coming months, an act that would deeply embarrass the alliance and the Biden administration as they work to counter Russia. And Congress this month raised concerns about Mr. Biden’s pledge at a NATO summit in Spain last month to sell dozens of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.
On Tuesday, Mr Erdogan traveled to Tehran for meetings with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The images of two main US rivals with Mr Erdogan, the leader of a Nato country, clashed with the Western narrative of a deeply isolated Iran and Russia, analysts said.
Then on Friday, a White House spokesman reiterated US concerns about Mr Erdogan’s threats to launch a new incursion into northern Syria, targeting US-backed Kurdish fighters he considers terrorists.
Taken together, Mr. Erdogan’s actions — and Mr. Biden’s limited ability to deter them — underscore the Turkish leader’s unique position as a military ally that is often at odds with the agendas of his Western allies. For American employees, this is often a maddening role.
“Erdogan is basically the Joe Manchin of NATO,” said Elizabeth Shackelford, a former Foreign Service officer, referring to the conservative West Virginia Democratic senator who has obstructed Mr. Biden’s domestic agenda. “He’s on our team, but then he does things that are obviously not good for our team. And I just don’t see that changing.
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But Biden administration officials say writing Mr. Erdogan out entirely would be self-defeating. His nation’s position at the crossroads between East and West is strategically important and allows him to be an interlocutor with even more troubled neighbors – as seen in the grain deal that created a demilitarized corridor across the Black Sea for Ukraine’s agricultural exports.
A senior US official said much of Mr Erdogan’s troubled behavior was a function of his political weakness in Turkey, where the inflation rate soared to nearly 80 per cent last month. Hoping to divert attention from his mismanaged economy, Mr. Erdogan has turned to chest-pounding displays of nationalism and demagoguery over the threat posed by the PKK, a Kurdish separatist movement in Turkey, and Kurdish groups in Syria.
Major NATO initiatives, such as the proposed expansion of the 30-member alliance to include Sweden and Finland, require unanimous consent. Mr Biden said in May that he hoped the two countries could “quickly” join in what would be a major strategic blow for Mr Putin.
But Mr. Erdogan raised objections, complaining that both potential new members had provided political and financial support to the PKK, which the United States has designated a terrorist organization because of its history of violent attacks. US and NATO officials have worried that the planned enlargement could fail in a major propaganda victory for Mr Putin, who has long worked to split the alliance.
NATO leaders breathed a sigh of relief at their summit last month when Mr Erdogan struck a deal with the leaders of Sweden and Finland, who pledged to act against terrorist organizations and join extradition deals with Turkey, which wants to prosecute PKK members living in these countries.
Mr. Biden seemed particularly grateful for the breakthrough. “I want to thank you in particular for what you have done to unify the situation regarding Finland and Sweden,” he told Mr Erdogan in the presence of reporters.
Updated
Jul 23, 2022 11:29 am ET
The two-page agreement said in summary language that Sweden and Finland would consider “pending requests to deport or extradite terrorism suspects expeditiously and thoroughly” from Turkey. But Turkish authorities said they expected the extradition of more than 70 people. It was not clear whether Sweden and Finland would agree or how Mr Erdogan might react if they did not.
On Monday, Mr Erdogan warned he could still “freeze” NATO expansion if his demands were not met.
Mr. Biden also told Mr. Erdogan in Spain that he supported the sale of 40 U.S. F-16 fighter jets that Turkey requested last fall, along with technological upgrades for dozens of fighters it already has. Turkey wants the planes in part because the Trump administration scrapped plans to sell the country advanced F-35 fighter jets in 2019 after Mr Erdogan, in one of his most confusing recent moves, bought Russia’s anti-aircraft missile system C -400 against US warnings.
Mr. Biden denied that he offered the planes to buy Mr. Erdogan’s support for NATO expansion. “And there was no quid pro quo with it; we just had to sell,” he said. “But I need congressional approval to be able to do that, and I think we can get that.”
Congressional approval may not be given. And it was not clear whether Mr. Erdogan could block the proposed NATO expansion until he reached a deal on the F-16s.
This month, the House of Representatives approved an amendment to an annual military policy bill requiring Mr. Biden to certify that any sale of the fighter jets is in America’s vital national interests and that Turkey will not use the planes to violate Greek airspace. its Aegean Maritime neighbor and NATO ally with whom Ankara is embroiled in a bitter territorial dispute.
Rep. Chris Pappas, Democrat of New Hampshire and sponsor of the amendment, also cited Mr. Erdogan’s purchase of the Russian missile system and ambiguous stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Mr Erdogan called the invasion “unacceptable” but did not join the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies on Russia.
“That’s enough,” Mr. Pappas said. “Turkey was playing on both sides of the fence in Ukraine. They are not the reliable ally we should be able to count on.
“I think the Biden administration needs to take a harder line,” he added.
After the White House formally asks Congress to approve the sale of the planes, Mr. Biden will need the support of other influential members who have been highly critical of Mr. Erdogan, including the Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Bob Menendez of New Jersey.
Mr. Menendez had previously questioned whether Turkey even belonged to NATO. And during a hearing last month on the proposed NATO expansion, he said that “in essence, Turkey’s 11th-hour concerns standing in the way of this process serve only Putin’s interests.”
Mr. Menendez also issued a statement last month with his Republican colleague on the Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, sternly warning Mr. Erdogan against his threat to invade northern Syria. They were joined by the Democrat chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Gregory W. Meeks of New York, and his Republican counterpart, Representative Michael McCaul of Texas.
In the statement, the lawmakers said the potential invasion would have “disastrous results,” threatening local operations against Islamic State remnants and exacerbating Syria’s humanitarian crisis.
A Pentagon official recently added to the US warnings.
“We strongly oppose any Turkish operation in northern Syria and have made clear our objections to Turkey,” Dana Strohl, deputy assistant secretary of defense, said this month at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The Islamic State will benefit from this campaign.”
Some of Mr. Erdogan’s fiercest critics warn of an endless cycle in which the Turkish leader wins concessions from the United States and other NATO allies, such as new warplanes and a tougher stance against Kurdish militia fighters, only to escalate your requests in the future.
“This dance around the F-16 — it’s jet fighter diplomacy and it’s a mask for what’s really going on here,” said Mark Wallace, founder of the Turkish Democracy Project, a group highly critical of Mr. Erdogan and his turn to authoritarianism. “A good ally — much less a good NATO ally — doesn’t use blackmail to get what it wants at key moments in the alliance’s history.”
Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting from Aspen, Colorado.
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