7:41 a.m.: There’s a “growing sense” that the Padres are the most likely landing spot for not only Soto, but also Josh Bell, tweets Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. There is some momentum in these talks, he adds. Similarly, the Post’s Jesse Doherty tweeted that the Nationals are starting to narrow the field.
San Diego, of course, already has Eric Hosmer installed at first base, but they’ve been trying for more than a year to unload the remainder of that contract. Speculatively speaking, if the Nats really want to maximize Soto’s (and perhaps Bell’s) return, they could be the ones to take on the remaining three years and $39 million of Hosmer’s contract themselves. The trio of Hosmer, Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg would be a lot of underwater contracts for a team, sure, but the Nats have nothing else in the payroll for the near term.
7:12 a.m.: Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is now less than 12 hours away, and the trade opportunity for Juan Soto that has captivated the entire sport and its fanbase remains unresolved. As of yesterday, the Soto auction was believed to be a three-team bidding battle, with the Padres, Cardinals and Dodgers all reported to be heavily involved. That doesn’t rule out another team (or teams) stepping in to make a late push, of course; it would honestly be a surprise if it didn’t happen, actually. Teams will miss other targets, priorities will shift, and stances on “outside” prospects will soften.
A stumbling block for the Cardinals thus far has been their reluctance to include young outfielder Dylan Carlson and their top prospect, MLB.com tweets John Morosi. Carlson, 23, is known to be of interest to the Nats as an immediate addition to the outfield, and as a former first-round pick and top-10 overall prospect (per Baseball America), that’s not surprising — even if it was more a solid regular rather than a star to this point in his young career. The hard-hitting Carlson is hitting .260/.334/.426 dating back to last season, and he’s lowered his hitting percentage significantly this season.
Karlsson can be controlled for four more years after this season and is capable of handling all three outfield positions. Perhaps there’s a sense that, given his youth and pedigree, he has another gear he hasn’t tapped into yet. Further clouding the possibility for the Cardinals, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests Washington may not be as high on left-hander Matthew Liberatore as others in the industry; Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote something similar a few weeks ago.
Turning to the Padres, the health of one of their best young arms, lefty Mackenzie Gore, is a potential complication. Gore was shut down with an elbow strain. He’s expected to avoid surgery, but the specter of an arm injury for a potential key pitcher in the deal has certainly changed the Nats’ valuation. Meanwhile, the Padres are already over the luxury tax threshold after their stunning addition of Josh Hader yesterday. They reportedly didn’t want to cross that mark for a second straight season. However, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests that if it means acquiring both Hader and Soto, the Padres “wouldn’t mind going completely over” the tax line.
In Los Angeles, the Dodgers have grown increasingly optimistic about their chances over the past few days, according to Jack Harris of the LA Times. The Dodgers’ perennially deep farm system is loaded with top prospects — they have seven of the top 100 farmhands in Baseball America right now — and they also have controllable young big leaguers of potential interest. Both Harris and Heyman suggested infielder Gavin Lux (four more years of team control) and righty Dustin May (coming back from Tommy John surgery, with three more years of control) as potential targets for Washington.
As of yesterday morning, the Yankees were reported as a “long shot,” the Rangers weren’t said to be particularly aggressive, and Mariners president Jerry Dipoto officially said his team was unlikely to land Soto. Adding to the list of teams that have inquired but appear unlikely to be a serious player, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Guardians sought Soto, but talks never gained traction. Washington was interested in top Cleveland prospect Daniel Espino, but health was again a factor in the negotiations as he has been out since April with a knee injury.
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