The Liberal Democrats plan to flood Tiverton and Honiton with activists after internal polls show the party is only slightly behind the Conservatives ahead of next week’s by-elections in Devon.
A sample of the party, based on tens of thousands of contacts with voters, suggests that of those who intend to vote on by-elections, the Conservatives had 46% support and the Liberal Democrats 44%.
The party said it had a four-point deficit at the same time before winning the December by-elections in North Shropshire.
Victory for the Liberal Democrats in Tiverton and Honiton calls for the abolition of the conservative majority of 24,239, which the party said would be the largest such gap ever overcome in the by-elections, although other races have seen greater percentage fluctuations.
If the polls are accurate, they suggest that a tacit agreement between Democrats and Labor to focus resources on one of two additional elections next Thursday could lead to a double defeat for Boris Johnson.
Labor has focused on Wakefield, where it seems to be well ahead. Lib Dem data suggest that support for Labor in Tiverton and Honiton, where it has been less intense, has fallen to 6%.
Labor graduated before the Liberal Democrats in Tiverton and Honiton in 2019, and activists vigorously dispute the idea that they are far behind this time, saying recent gains in council seats show they will once again surpass the Liberal Democrats.
While the Liberal Democrats have triumphed in two previous Tory strongholds in the past year, starting with a victory in the Chesham and Amersham by-elections, party officials have put their chances in Devon’s place at no better than 50-50.
The Conservatives are campaigning hard in Tiverton and Honiton, with Johnson among a number of senior figures to visit. Lib Dem agitators have reported concerns that some former Tory voters, while unhappy with issues such as Downing Street parties and complaining that the government has neglected the area, may simply stay at home instead of shifting their support.
Liberal Democrats have called on lawmakers, colleagues and activists to head to the constituency immediately to help with the campaign, with officials saying travel plans must be made due to national rail strikes next week.
A party source said: “The impetus is definitely with the Liberal Democrats in Tiverton and Honiton, but it is by no means over the border. If we get an army of activists knocking on doors this weekend, we can do it. Whatever happens, it will be something very close. “
Sign up for the First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every weekday at 7am BST
The by-elections were prompted by the resignation of Neil Parish, a 2010 Tory MP, after he admitted to watching pornography on his phone in municipalities.
The vote in Wakefield comes after Imran Ahmad Khan, who previously held Labor for the Conservatives in 2019, resigned after pleading guilty to sexually assaulting a 15-year-old boy.
Add Comment