Get ready to reminisce about past scandals and wars that still resonate today. Tuesday is the fifth anniversary of the fire that engulfed Grenfell Tower in west London, revealing flaws in the building’s cladding and causing a crisis for apartment owners in the UK, which continues to generate consequences.
It is also the 40th anniversary of the end of the Falkland Islands war, which left wounds fresh in Buenos Aires.
Friday marks half a century since the burglary at the Watergate Hotel, Apartment and Office Complex in Washington. Fortunately, this problem was resolved more quickly, although it left the annoying legacy of the suffix attached to what appears to be each subsequent political scandal.
The latest, partygate, has a way to run, although the protagonist, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, will (ironically) be the center of a legitimate social gathering this week, as he turns 58 on Saturday. .
The additional series Partygate, Are You Served (Poorly) is likely to see another part in which the government promises to publish controversial and long-delayed legislation to repeal the Northern Ireland Protocol on Monday. As my colleague Peter Foster noted in his excellent Brexit Briefing last week, this is unlikely to end well.
Johnson is also expected to announce a new “growth plan” this week with his Chancellor, Rishi Sunak. Following the OECD’s ruling on the UK’s growth next year – only Russia affected by sanctions is projected to be worse off among the G20 – the country clearly needs a new plan, if not a new prime minister. to fulfill it.
The Royal Marine Corps garrison in Port Fanland after the surrender of Argentina in June 1982 © IWM / Getty Images
France goes to the polls again on Sunday for the second round of parliamentary elections. Concern for President-elect Emmanuel Macron this time is not the far right, but a far-left alliance.
There will be at least one solution this week. Colombians will go to the polls on Sunday for the second round of their country’s presidential election, which will decide whether populist Rodolfo Hernandez can oust former leftist Gustavo Petro. Whatever the outcome, it will be an interesting race.
Economic data
It will be (another) week for interest rate news. The main attraction will be the meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, but there will also be decisions from the Bank of England and its equivalents in Japan, Switzerland and Brazil.
The question is not whether the tightening of monetary policy will accelerate, but by how much – the answer to this question depends in part on your confidence in the ability of an economy to achieve a soft landing or whether it is doomed to enter a recession.
The jump in inflation in the US on Friday fueled talks of rapid tightening. Politicians have already signaled that at least the Fed will provide a series of interest rate hikes of half a point. Traders set interest rate prices on federal funds to approximately 2.9% by the end of the year from their current target range of 0.75 to 1%. The OECD set its mark last week before US inflation figures were announced, calling for faster action by the Fed.
Companies
Retail is high on the profit calendar this week. The title is Tesco, Britain’s largest supermarket chain, and observers want to hear more about how inflation affects household spending. However, just two months after the year-round results, few expect the company to deviate from its cautious scenario that profits this year will be held back by the need to keep prices under control for buyers.
I asked Jonathan Ellie, a retail FT correspondent, for an inspection. “The company has been gaining market share in recent months, but sales growth figures for the first quarter will be clouded by the closure of pubs and restaurants in the same period a year ago,” he said. “It boosted supermarket sales but hurt Booker, Tesco’s wholesale operation.
Among analysts’ comments, Barclays forecast an overall decline of 1.8% in the UK, with lower volumes partially offset by higher prices.
Read the full calendar for the week ahead here
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