A drone image shows some of the dozens of burnt-out armored vehicles on the banks of the Seversky Donets River near Bilokhorivka, Ukraine on May 12th. (From the command of the Ukrainian Airborne Forces)
Satellite images and first-hand testimonies have provided a more complete picture of the numerous and disastrous efforts by Russian forces to cross the Seversky Donets River in eastern Ukraine over the past week.
New video and analysis of drones and satellite imagery show that the Russians may have lost up to 70 armored vehicles and other equipment while trying to cross the river earlier this week. Their goal was to try to encircle the Ukrainian defenses in the Luhansk region, but they failed miserably.
In its account of the battle, Ukraine’s 80th Separate Assault Brigade said it had “destroyed the pontoons and thwarted nine attempts to cross.”
It claims that “at least 73 units of equipment were destroyed, including T-72 tanks” and various infantry fighting vehicles.
This assessment seems to be supported by an analysis of a video of drones showing Russian equipment scattered along the route north of the river, as well as half-sunk tanks.
It is clear that the Ukrainians have previously figured out where the Russians are likely to try to set up the pontoons and have watched the Russian forces approach. Exploration of possible checkpoints began at least two days before the Russian experience.
The Seversky Donets is flowing fast and it seems that the Russians needed motorized tugs to try to complete the bridge. The noise was another indication to Ukrainian troops that an attempt was being made to cross the river.
In its story, the 80th Brigade said that “despite heavy losses, the enemy still managed to break through … by conquering the northern outskirts of one of the settlements.” At least 30 Russian vehicles and infantry did pass.
Other Ukrainian officials say those Russian units that have passed north of the village of Bilogorovka have been blocked.
“Fierce, heavy fighting lasted about two days,” the 80th Brigade said on its Facebook page. “The paratroopers destroyed an entire battalion-tactical group (BTG) invaders!”
An open source analysis suggests that this is probably true, with at least 30 infantry fighting vehicles counted among the remains of the pontoon site, not counting what may have been destroyed among the equipment that fell.
In its analysis of the episode, the Institute for the Study of War said that “Ukrainian forces have probably inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces trying to cross the Seversky Donets River.”
“Russian forces have probably lost the momentum needed to carry out a large-scale crossing of the Seversky Donets River,” he added.
Mick Ryan, a former Major General in the Australian Armed Forces who is studying the Ukrainian conflict, wrote on Twitter: “The Russians obviously intend to invest in this axis and throw a lot of fighting force on it.
“Therefore, this is probably a bigger hurdle for Russians than some speculate,” Ryan said in a post posted on his verified Twitter account.
“This probably led to the loss of much of its combat power, not just the BTG, but probably an entire brigade.
“Importantly, the Russians have lost scarce bridge engineering equipment (and possibly combat engineers). These resources are neither cheap nor available in large quantities. And they are in high demand during the offensive.”
The inability of the Russians to advance from the north across the river probably delayed their offensive in Luhansk, which has so far relied on troops moving east and south across the front lines, which have been moving for a month.
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