A new union of the French left is putting pressure on Emmanuel Macron’s group in the second round of parliamentary elections as the president tries to retain his parliamentary majority.
Macron’s centrists could lose dozens of seats in the French National Assembly in the final next Sunday after a strong performance by a historic left-wing party alliance led by Jean-Luc Melenchon’s staunch “France Unconquered with Socialists and Greens”.
“There was a televised debate a few months ago about whether the left was dead and over,” said Clementine Oten, who is likely to win re-election in the Seine-Saint-Denis outside Paris for the alliance known as the New Popular Environmental and Social Union or Nupes. “Honestly, this union is successful.” She said it was now crucial for the left to try to bring out young and low-income people who did not come to vote.
Macron, who was re-elected president in April against Marine Le Pen, needs a majority for his group in the lower house of parliament to have a free hand on his proposals to raise the retirement age, cut taxes and change the social system. .
It is estimated that the Macron centrists and their allies working under the Ensemble (Together) banner will still win the largest share of seats in the 577-seat palace. But to secure an absolute majority, they need 289 seats. Sociologists predict that they will occupy between 255 and 295 seats, which means that a clear majority is not guaranteed.
Le Pen’s far-right national rally has also performed well and is likely to increase its seats, despite historically low turnout of just 47% in France.
Sunday’s result without an absolute majority for Macron’s camp could lead to a confused struggle as it tries to expand its centrist alliance to new parties or make individual deals for each piece of legislation, such as right-wing opponents such as Les Républicains. There may be a change of government.
Macron’s centrists did worse in Sunday’s parliamentary vote in the first round than when he was first elected five years ago in 2017.
“Obviously not a great result,” said Mathieu Gallard, research director at the sociological agency Ipsos, on France Inter radio. “Macron’s group also lost 3.9 million votes in the first round of the presidential election.
The form of the future parliament will now depend on the final vote on June 19th.
Several of Macron’s ministers are waging close battles in constituencies against the left and will have to leave the government if they lose. These include Amélie de Monschalin, the environment minister who is fighting in Essonne, just outside Paris. Macron’s party leader, Civil Service Minister Stanislas Gerini, and European Minister Clement Bonn are battling close races in various parts of Paris.
Monshalin set the tone for a heated battle against the left, telling a television station that the left-wing alliance was an extremist who wanted “anarchy” and “disorder” and weakened French institutions. Elizabeth Bourne, the prime minister expected to be elected in Normandy, said Melenchon’s left-wing alliance was “a rift with Europe, a fascination with authoritarian regimes” and alignment with Russia.
Nupes made a tactical coup in the first round. The fact that they have joined forces for the first time in 25 years to nominate a candidate in a constituency means they will significantly increase their representation in parliament. They will more than double their seats and are expected to win between 150 and 210 to become the main opposition force in parliament.
Four members of parliament from the left, including three young candidates, were elected directly in the first round in the Paris area as the alliance established itself in and around urban centers.
Meanwhile, Le Pen’s party has made significant progress. It has increased its votes by more than 1.2 million since the last parliamentary elections in 2017.
The far right could win up to 40 seats, compared to eight won in 2017. This would be historic, as Le Pen’s party has traditionally been hampered by a lack of proportional representation in parliament and had difficulties in the former past. system after the vote. More than 15 seats will give Le Pen an official group in parliament, with more visibility to speak and put issues on the agenda, as well as important additional financial resources. In some departments, such as Pas-de-Calais in the north and Vaucluse in the south, the party managed to reach the second round in each constituency. She also received support in the northeast.
The right-wing party Les Républicains and its allies are in fourth place in terms of votes and hope to retain between 33 and 80 seats. This is a drop of more than 300 members of parliament 20 years ago under Jacques Chirac or the 100 seats held by the right and its allies at the end of the last parliament. But the group could play an important role if Macron’s centrists fail to gain a majority and seek new alliances.
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