The update on Sunday afternoon for severe weather clearly shows the predicted path of a possible significant severe weather event on Monday, June 13.
The Storm Forecast Center is updating the form of possible severe weather in today’s afternoon update. The long corridor of possible strong gusts of wind indicates the need for observation of the gorge.
Derecho is a long-lasting rectilinear wind event. The NOAA defines the derecho as “a wind damage strip that extends more than 240 miles and includes gusts of wind of at least 58 mph or more for most of its length.”
Michigan is not in the Tornado Alley, but we are in the Derecho Alley.
Tornado comes from the Spanish word tornar, turn. Derecho is also a Spanish word meaning straight ahead.
There will be a bunch of storms on Monday, unfolding somewhere in Wisconsin or Illinois and racing through southern Michigan on Monday late afternoon or evening.
This afternoon’s update shows the path that the Storm Forecast Center is expecting for a series of severe thunderstorms.
Forecast for strong gusts of wind from 8 am, Monday, June 13, to 8 am, Tuesday, June 14.
The black-shaded area is where the Storm Forecast Center (SPC) focuses on what they call “significantly difficult weather.”
The SPC discussion said: “Scattered strong thunderstorms should develop on Monday in parts of the northern plains and parts of the Midwest to the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. Heavy hail, destructive winds and several tornadoes appear to be possible. Some of the winds can be significantly stronger (75+ mph) in parts of the Midwest / Ohio Valley on Monday afternoon / evening. ”
“Given the strength of the upward flow and the potential to develop a very well-organized bow, the potential for significant gusts is obvious at the local level. A narrow corridor with a wide coverage of strong gusts is expected, but highlighting this corridor remains difficult. ”
The Storm Forecast Center and we suggest you see where the initial thunderstorms form early Monday afternoon. The further north the storms initially form, the more likely the strong wind is to pass through southern Lower Michigan.
Here is a new radar forecast from the High Resolution Fast Refresh Model (HRRR). It is usually quite accurate and shows strong storms early on Monday night.
Radar forecast from the HRRR model from Monday noon to 11 pm Monday.
Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, Lansing, Jackson, Ann Arbor, Detroit and the surrounding areas may find themselves in the path of this severe storm complex.
Watch for more updates as the chance of severe weather approaches. At some point late Monday morning, we should have a good sense of where storms will form and where they will follow.
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