This week only Nadhim Zahawi rode a political rollercoaster to rival the one that threw Boris Johnson out of Downing Street. On Monday, he was the UK’s education secretary, his first cabinet post. By Tuesday, he had been promoted to chancellor. On Wednesday, he plans to cut taxes with the prime minister. And by Thursday, he had played a central role in ending Johnson’s premiership.
The 55-year-old’s elevation to the second most powerful role in British politics is the latest step in a rapid rise that his allies hope will see him become Britain’s first non-white prime minister. But some senior conservatives believe his quick turn against Johnson will backfire.
Zahawi was born in Baghdad in 1967 to a Kurdish family who fled to Britain when he was just 9 years old. The future education minister spoke no English when he arrived, leading his teachers to initially fear he had a learning disability. He was educated at both state and private schools before obtaining a degree in chemical engineering from University College London.
After graduating, Zahawi went into business, albeit with sometimes mixed results. One of his less successful early ventures was a marketing company that distributed merchandise for the children’s television program Teletubbies. He was also an aide to Lord Geoffrey Archer, a former Tory MP and writer, including during the latter’s unsuccessful bid for Mayor of London.
Zahawi began his political career as a local councilor in the prosperous London borough of Wandsworth. Any national ambitions he harbored were put on the back burner as he focused on entrepreneurship. In 2000, he founded YouGov, one of the first polling companies to focus on online surveys. But other roles, including receiving £1.3m as a consultant to Gulf Keystone Petroleum, have raised eyebrows. It was reported this week that Zahawi had been investigated by the National Crime Agency, but no wrongdoing had been found.
In 2010 Zahawi was elected to the Tory safe seat of Stratford-upon-Avon. Unlike many ambitious Tories elected when the party returned to power under David Cameron, his ministerial career did not take off. A Number 10 employee who worked with him said: “He was obviously very talented, but he didn’t catch David’s attention.”
However, support for Brexit in the 2016 referendum ensured that his standing within the party rose. A series of junior ministerial appointments followed. But it was Johnson’s patronage that thrust Zahawi into the spotlight as vaccine minister in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. He was praised by MPs for his calm media appearances amid widespread fears of shortages.
He also won the favor of Whitehall civil servants. One Mandarin who worked with him during the pandemic says his sharp focus on data is welcome. “As secretary of state, he kept asking, ‘What is the evidence?’ What is the evidence? during the vaccine launch,” the official recalled. “A lot of other ministers just do things on instinct.”
Since his elevation to the cabinet as education secretary last September, Zahawi has been tipped as a candidate to succeed Johnson. Like rivals such as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and former chancellor Rishi Sunak, he has been duping MPs and preparing for the prime minister’s departure for months.
He has also been in the gym with the leadership race in mind. “He’s running, literally,” smiles one lawmaker. On weeknights, he has taken to eating half portions.
Zahawi’s campaign will launch early next week, focusing on three elements, according to officials involved: his “phenomenal” background; its business hinterland; and his record in government. “Many of his rivals do not have business experience before politics, others also do not have the same level of performance or management experience,” says one lawmaker who supports him.
But his role in Johnson’s downfall could determine whether he makes it to No. 10. When Sunak resigned as chancellor on Tuesday, Zahawi was one of the few credible candidates for the post. Some of his supporters were disappointed when he accepted. “We always knew he was a good guy, but he had bad political judgment,” says a friend. But others felt there wasn’t much of a choice. “These positions must be filled. . . he will try to keep the show on the road.
A day after he arrived at the Finance Ministry, Zahawi was part of a delegation of ministers who told the prime minister to go. In an open letter, he wrote that he was “heartbroken” that his friend of 30 years had not heeded his advice. “Prime Minister, you know in your heart what is the right thing to do and leave now. Johnson agreed hours later. “Nadhim’s tongue finally got over Boris,” says one ally of his role in the regicide.
Although his profile in Westminster has risen significantly in recent days, Zahawi’s profile outside the world of politics is limited. Bookmaker Ladbrokes pegged his odds of being the next prime minister at 12/1, behind five other contenders including Sunak and Truss. His challenge is to convince lawmakers he can build a national following.
But among the Tory campaigners who will ultimately choose the next party leader and prime minister, Zahawi is well-liked. He is the second most popular figure in the party with a net approval rating of +66, behind only Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, his likely leadership rival. Paul Goodman, editor of ConservativeHome, says: “He has a successful track record in business and a successful track record in government in delivering the vaccine agenda.”
Goodman notes that the upcoming leadership race is a “lottery,” but adds that if he “faces the membership, he could do well.” Whether that happens depends first on the votes of fellow Tory MPs, who are already well-acquainted with his background and government experience. They will decide whether Zahawi is able to help the party recover from the upheavals of the Johnson era.
sebastian.payne@ft.com
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