New Brunswick set a grim record for deaths in the days before and after Christmas 2021, as variants of COVID-19 Delta and Omicron spread widely across the province, according to new estimates released by Statistics Canada.
New Brunswick officially recorded only 37 deaths from COVID-19 in the last five weeks of 2021, but according to a new Statistics Canada model, 1,129 people died during the period – 327 more than is usually expected at this time of year.
This led to the highest “excessive death rate” in New Brunswick in the last six months of 2021 among Canadian provinces, a problem that needs to be investigated and explained, according to an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto.
“The level of over-mortality in New Brunswick during this period is enormous,” said Associate Professor Tara Moriarty. “And if COVID doesn’t kill people, what the hell is that?”
This chart shows the weekly deaths in New Brunswick for eight years. The gray line shows how deaths in the second half of 2021 reached record levels. (Statistics Canada)
Statistics Canada tracks deaths in each province on a monthly basis during the COVID-19 pandemic and compares them to what would be expected in a normal year in an attempt to detect “excessive mortality” caused by the virus, both directly and indirectly.
With its latest New Brunswick estimates for December and revisions to earlier estimates, Statistics Canada now says New Brunswick has had more deaths than normal in each of the last 25 consecutive weeks of 2021.
A total of 4,599 people died in the province during those 25 weeks, 886 more than normal. This is 23.9 percent more than would be expected in the absence of a pandemic, and the highest percentage among the provinces during this period – ahead of British Columbia, Saskatchewan and Alberta.
“In order to understand the direct and indirect consequences of a pandemic, it is important to measure the over-mortality that occurs when there are more deaths than expected over a period of time,” Statistics Canada said in an explanation of the project.
“There is evidence of excessive mortality when weekly deaths are consistently higher than expected, but especially when they exceed the expected range for several consecutive weeks.”
In its latest edition, Statistics Canada includes new mortality data for New Brunswick, covering the period from 28 November to 1 January, a period in which the province was under siege by the rapidly growing COVID-19 infections.
New Brunswick has largely lost its battle to control COVID-19 through an “elimination strategy” after raising health care prematurely, according to health officials, including Dr. Gordon Dow, an infectious disease expert at the province’s Horizon Health Network. Most safeguards were lifted in the summer of 2021 just as the Delta option began circulating.
The number of cases in the province increased from an average of 13 per day in August to 47 per day in September, and by December an average of 192 people in the province were positive for the virus every twenty-four hours.
Schools were closed early for an extended Christmas holiday, organized sports were suspended and household balloons of 20 were reintroduced in an attempt to control the outbreak.
In the last 25 weeks of 2021, New Brunswick recorded 114 deaths from COVID-19. However, 886 people died more than normal, 23.9 percent. This was the highest mortality rate among the provinces. (Nathan Dennett / Canadian Press)
“We were all hoping for a better end to this year,” Dr. Jennifer Russell, chief medical officer for health care at New Brunswick, told a news briefing on December 21.
During this period, Statistics Canada said that deaths in New Brunswick also rose to record levels.
It is estimated that 93 more people than normal died in the week ending December 4, with another 234 more than normal in the next four weeks.
Moriarty says the fact that deaths are rising at the same time as infections suggests the two must be linked.
“There was a Delta wave in New Brunswick, and you can really see it in the mortality data,” Moriarty said.
“The overlap is almost perfect over time. So it’s a really important clue that a lot of it is probably related to COVID.”
Tara Moriarty is an infectious disease expert and researcher at the University of Toronto. She says the fact that COVID-19 infections and unexplained deaths have increased at the same time in 2021 suggests they are linked. (Lisa Son / CBC)
Moriarty said some deaths could only be indirectly caused by COVID – such as someone who has a heart attack and “delays access to emergency care, such as fear of going to the hospital”, but said that whatever caused it deaths must be identified.
It is important to help fully understand the virus and better plan public health responses to future variants and pandemics.
The New Brunswick Department of Health has said it is aware that the province had an excess of deaths in 2021, but is not yet ready to acknowledge that COVID’s deaths may have been underestimated.
“Excess deaths reported by Statistics Canada may be related to COVID, although further analysis needs to be completed to confirm the true number of deaths related to COVID-19 in New Brunswick in 2021, “said the department’s communications officer Michel Gunnard in an email. to CBC News earlier this month.
“It has been decided that the Ministry of Health will complete an analysis of redundant deaths after all registered deaths for 2021 are coded in Statistics Canada.
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