Who is the No. 1 prospect in the NBA Draft for 2022?
On Thursday night, we’ll find out which Orlando Magic is valued as the No. 1 choice, as they are the first to choose for the first time since 2004 – but it’s far from a consensus at the top of this project among NBA’s front offices. And the same for our team of experts. In our final top 100, made up of consensus taken from CBS Sports experts Gary Parish, Matt Norlander, David Cobb and I, along with Adam Finkelstein and Travis Branham of 247Sports, there were four different players who won votes 1.
So what’s the number one prospect in the 2022 NBA Draft?
The Scouts have their say, but our math in the consensus rankings has determined Chet Holmgren to be honored – but below, each of us has listed our cases of our choice as the No. 1 prospect in this year’s project. Here’s who each of us had in the first place, and why, as I approached the draft on Thursday night with a wide range of top-class opinions.
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The case of Chet Holmgren
I understand the arguments of Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero and even Jaden Ivey to become the first overall in the NBA draft in 2022. I do not think any of them is a ridiculous option. But I still sincerely believe that Holmgren is the best potential available this year, so I also believe that Orlando should take him with choice number 1. He is an elite defender of the rim in defense who can sail in attack, yes bounce it, shoot and generally use matches.
If a traditional big man keeps it, he can probably get around it. If a smaller player keeps it, he can definitely shoot right over it. Does the light frame bother me? Of course, on some level, I guess. But as ESPN’s Jonathan Givoni noted in a recent podcast, how many great prospects do not reach greatness precisely because they are too weak? He couldn’t think of any. I can’t either. So I will just assume that Holmgren’s unique skill set will allow him to overcome his unique framework and eventually come out as the best player in this draft. “Gary Parish.”
Holmgren has the highest ceiling in the project in my opinion. He changes the game at both ends of the floor. There are simply not many 7-foot people around the world who can protect the rim, stretch the floor and still provide such an effective interior finishing presence. He is even a better ruler of the ball and pass than I think some people give him credit. But on top of that, I just believe a lot in his mentality and that inner firmness. I know he needs to build his body, but if there’s one thing all NBA teams have figured out how to do at an extremely high level, it’s this. “Adam Finkelstein.”
We know that the whole world is questioning his physique, but the truth is that Holmgren has never had a history of injuries or has shown that a lack of strength is a real obstacle. You will not be able to throw it against Joel the Embiids of the world, but no one can throw anything at him. In four to five years we can rightly say that he is one of the faces of the League with his ability to dribble, pass and shoot, unlike all we have seen in his size and length, along with the fact that he is elite protector and rim protector. “Travis Branham.”
I understand the appeal of Smith and Banchero, but for me the top of Holmgren is one step higher. Smith lacks playmaking potential – Holmgren can thrive in this department. Suspected of Banchero as a 3-point shooter and in defense – Holmgren has a sweet hit and is one of the best wheel defense prospects we’ve ever seen. And I do not accept the rapture for the unique body type. Holmgren has managed to stand up to stronger players throughout his life, and NBA rules will continue to evolve in his favor. He has already proven that he can perform at the highest levels in amateur basketball and also has the most room for improvement from each of the three best prospects. Add it all and it certainly sounds like the best player in the draft class. “Colin Ward-Henninger.”
The case of Paolo Banchero
Whether it’s CBSSports.com, Eye on College Basketball or CBS Sports HQ, I explained my position that Banchero No. 1 has been on my big board many times in recent weeks. But here, just opposite the draft, again with feeling. Banchero is the most sensible choice of any player in this class because he is the most developed and proven talent. His numbers at Duke, along with many other first-round players in the starting lineup, were beyond satisfactory: 17.2 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 3.2 apg for the nation’s highest-rated offensive team, according to KenPom.com.
Banchero was 52% of the scorer with 2 points and 33.8% of the range of 3 points. No one in this project has the combination of Banchero size + skill + touch + ability to pass + create a game + bounce + competitive advantage. It has a handle above average, can work on the ladder, shoot beyond the arc and is not a black hole. Fluctuations with him as number 1 stem from the fact that he is not as potentially harmful to a 3-point shooter as Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren and even Jaden Ivy. But he can still shoot it. In defense, he has more room for compensation. However, no one is as ready to play in the NBA tomorrow as Banchero and I think that in the end he will be a multiple All-Star by the end of his second contract. “Matt Norlander.”
The case of Jaden Ivy
There are safer prospects at the top of this class (Smith Jr.) and bigger ups and downs (Holmgren), but no one has the rare combination of explosive athleticism and creative ability that Ivy has in this draft. He is a human firecracker that can jump to the edge. He has the potential to develop into a true leading advocate at the next level if he continues to develop and improve as a decision maker.
In the worst case, he can be the initiator of a change of pace, whose dynamic explosiveness helps to alleviate the burden of the team’s number 1 initiating option. I would take him number one above everyone in this class with the possibility of his playmaking improving even slightly, if not significantly, and his improvement as a scorer in the last year portends very good for him as a rising star entering the NBA. “Kyle Boone.”
The case of Jabari Smith Jr.
What most clearly separates Smith from Banchero, Holmgren and others as the No. 1 best choice in the 2022 NBA Draft is his elite outside shooting. With a 6-10 and 42% 3-point score of 5.5 attempts per game in his only season at Auburn, Smith is projected to be an excellent long-term scorer at the next level. While Banchero and Holmgren flashed in some range of …
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