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With the regular season of the NBA 2021-22 already in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily elections for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one choice for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Game presented Miami Heath vs. Boston Celtics
The choice of matches from the Eastern Conference finals is disappointing because it essentially comes down to trying to judge which injuries are more important, while knowing that each time we can understand that a player we previously expected to play, actually sitting. My personal advice for this series is not to make any bets until the starting lineups are announced 30 minutes before the top. However, I don’t have that luxury for this column, so here it is: the absences in Game 4 were Marcus Smart and Tyler Hero. Boston played two playoff games in which Smart was his only absent player, winning both and allowing only 168 combined points in those games. This is a small sample, but it makes sense. Derrick White is not smart, but he is one of the best reserve defenders in basketball. The Celtics are so deep in defense that they can get away with missing a key gear. Heat are so weak attackers that they will struggle to generate points if Herro is compromised or excluded. They scored just 82 points without him in Match 4. During the regular season, teams with Herro scored 116 points per 100 possessions, a very high number, while teams without him scored just 112, below the league average. Again, you have to wait until the time for the match, but since these are the main injuries we know about at the moment, I would be a little inclined to Boston. The choice: Celtics -2
The same logic that guides our choice of the Celtics suggests that the lower the game the total number of points. Boston’s defense loses far less with an obstructed Smart than the Miami attack loses with an obstructed Hero. The total in game 4 was only 184 points. This series was a little heavier in the offensive earlier, but with the injuries shaking the way they have, I would have learned that the defense is more pronounced the rest of the way. Choice: Under 204
Jimmy Butler was not included in the report of injuries from Game 5, a rather surprising development after he missed the second half of Game 3. He played in Game 4, but scored only six points. Happens. Sometimes players just have bad games. But Butler didn’t look right physically with the naked eye. He didn’t reach the line once, and he didn’t seem to have the typical bang. Boston challenged him by allowing center Robert Williams III to defend him a lot. The bottom line was that the Celtics didn’t think Butler could hit him in his compromised state, and that if he couldn’t, Williams’ size would take the post-ups until Butler’s limited range would take him away from the basket. Maybe Butler is stronger in Game 5, but the player we saw in Game 4 didn’t seem to be able to score 25 points. Choice: Butler under 24.5 points
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