Grain containers storing corn, wheat, sunflower and soybeans in Boryspil, Ukraine, in May. Credit…Nicole Tung for The New York Times
BRUSSELS — There are a lot of moving parts to the grain deal Russia and Ukraine struck that officials didn’t even think was possible until mid-June, not least because the war continues and trust between the countries is extremely low.
Here’s what you need to know about the nipple problem and how it can be solved now.
Why did Ukrainian grain stay in the country?
After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, it deployed warships along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Ukraine mines these waters to deter a Russian naval attack. This meant that the ports used to export Ukrainian grain were blocked for commercial shipping. In addition, Russia stole grain stocks, mined grain fields so they could not be harvested, and destroyed grain warehouses.
Ukrainian soldiers at their first position in Odessa, on the Black Sea coast, in March. Credit… Tyler Hicks/New York Times
How will the surgery go?
Ukrainian captains will direct ships loaded with grain from the ports of Odesa, Yuzhno and Chernomorsk.
A joint command center with representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN will be established immediately in Istanbul to monitor every movement of the flotillas.
Note: The arrow highlights the general direction of movement; does not represent
exact route. • Source: European and other government officials
Note: The arrow highlights the general direction of movement; does not represent
exact route. • Source: European and other government officials
The ships will head to Turkish waters to be inspected by a joint team of Turkish, UN, Ukrainian and Russian officials, then deliver their cargo to destinations around the world, returning for another inspection by the joint team before heading back to Ukraine.
The agreement specifies that the main responsibility of the inspection team is to check for “unauthorized cargo and personnel on board ships entering or leaving Ukrainian ports.” A key Russian demand was that the returning ships not carry weapons to Ukraine.
The parties agreed that ships and port facilities used for their operations would be protected from hostilities.
The operation is expected to quickly begin supplying five million tonnes of grain per month. At this rate, and given that 2.5 million tons are already being transported by land and river to Ukraine’s friendly neighbors, stocks of nearly 20 million tons should be cleared within three to four months. This will free up storage space for the new harvest, which is already underway in Ukraine.
What are the risks?
No broad ceasefire has been agreed, so the ships will travel through a war zone. Attacks near the ships or in the ports they use could break the agreement. Another risk would be a breach of trust or disagreement between inspectors and Joint Command officials.
The role of the UN and Turkey is to mediate such disagreements on the ground and to monitor and enforce the agreement. The agreement is valid for 120 days, and the UN hopes it will be renewed.
Harvesting wheat in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine this past week. Credit… Sergey Bobok/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Will this immediately solve world hunger and lower food prices?
No. Global hunger is a persistent problem caused by food maldistribution and price manipulation that affects parts of the world year after year. It is often complicated by conflict and is also affected by climate change. The war in Ukraine, which produces a large share of the world’s wheat, has added a huge burden to grain distribution networks, driving up prices and fueling hunger.
Officials say the deal has the potential to increase the flow of wheat to Somalia within weeks, averting a full-blown famine, and should lead to a gradual decline in global grain prices. But given the fragility of the agreement, grain markets are unlikely to return to normal immediately.
What about Russia?
Russia is also a major exporter of grains and fertilizers, and the agreement should make it easier to sell these goods on the world market.
The Kremlin has repeatedly claimed that its stockpiles cannot be exported because of sanctions imposed by the US and the European Union.
The measures don’t actually affect those goods, but private shipping companies, insurers, banks and other businesses are reluctant to help Russia export grain and fertilizer, fearing they could face sanctions or that doing business with Russia could hurt of their reputation.
Offering reassurance, the European Union on July 21 issued a legal clarification of its sanctions, saying that various banks and other companies involved in the grain trade were not actually banned.
The United Nations said that, armed with similar assurances from the United States, it had held talks with the private sector and that trade from Russia – particularly the Russian port of Novorossiysk – should pick up speed.
Correction:
July 22, 2022
An earlier version of this article incorrectly described the process agreed upon by Ukraine and Russia for the grain ships. The ships will carry their cargo to various destinations and return to Ukrainian ports, stopping for inspections in Turkey. Their cargo does not necessarily have to be unloaded in Turkey to be carried to their destination by other ships.
— Matina Stevies-Gridneff
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