Ministers are likely to face a new outbreak of industrial unrest if the government is expected to accept an increase in NHS workers’ wages significantly below inflation, unions and trade unions warn.
Even if there are no strikes for a pay proposal around the expected level of 3%, some said that another pay cut in real terms, combined with staff shortages and Covid’s legacy, could simply lead to the eviction of workers as a single employee. called the situation a “perfect storm for the NHS.”
Although the final recommendation of the NHS Pay Review Body (PRB) is not yet known, sources say that the offer for staff in England is likely to be around 3%. Prizes in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are determined by delegated governments.
His recommendation has already been submitted to the government, but has not yet been approved or made public. While some sources predict that the news may come as early as next week, last year it appeared only in the second half of July.
Ministers made it clear in their written evidence to the PRB earlier this year that they planned to reward NHS staff in England by 3% and that any higher figure would be unaffordable.
There was “extremely limited space for any further investment in pay” beyond that, as the NHS budget was fixed to prioritize tackling the huge backlog of people waiting for planned hospital care, which now stands at 6, 5 million.
Speaking in private, coalition officials from 13 unions, representative groups and professional trade organizations involved in the negotiations to pay NHS employees hired under the “change agenda” – almost all except doctors and dentists – said that strikes seem very possible when inflation is at 9%.
“There is real anger among members about the impact of inflation,” said one official. “It’s not just this year – it’s also the cumulative effect of real-world wage cuts since 2010. The strike is a big leap, but you can easily see how it will happen.”
An official from another body said: “If the recommendation is as we expect it, we will definitely not be satisfied. You can’t say for sure, but you’d think we’d be looking to vote for members in action.
If there have been strikes, they are more likely to come from smaller, single-professional organizations, where obtaining the necessary voting support is easier than for larger health unions such as Unite and GMB, which play a number of roles.
But several sources have said the situation is much deeper, and even if there is no official action, wage increases below inflation could simply lead to the departure of a significant number of people, exacerbating staff shortages.
“It’s not just about the pay rise, it’s about what it would be, given how hard people have worked, especially with Covid,” said another employee.
“They were reckless and some may just decide to use their skills elsewhere. It takes time to train new staff, and Brexit means we don’t have people from abroad. I know it’s a cliché, but it’s a bit of a perfect storm right now. “
Another employee of the professional organization said that morale among the members was “at the bottom”. They said: “They feel completely underestimated anyway, and if they then have to take what is actually a pay cut, you can imagine what this will lead to. Let’s just say it will be interesting for a few months. “
A spokesman for the Department of Health and of salaries this year.
“No decisions have been made and we will carefully consider the recommendations of the independent pay review bodies.
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