NHS staff should receive a salary increase of at least 4%, independent experts advise, directing health workers to a clash with ministers who have set a firm maximum of 3%.
The Payroll Review Body (PRB) will recommend that NHS staff increase by somewhere between 4% and 5% this year, the Guardian understands, despite government warnings that taking such advice would break the bank.
Health unions have warned that even raising this line will do little to reassure nurses, midwives and other staff – and will fight to prevent the prospect of strike action in the NHS.
They emphasize that NHS employees are struggling with rising costs for energy, petrol, food and other basic goods, which is why some have to use food banks.
The unions are aiming for increases that are at least in line with inflation, which is 9.1%, the highest in 40 years, although the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) is looking for an increase of five percentage points higher – 14% .
For every additional 1% that NHS staff in England receives, it would cost NHS England around £ 700 million a year, the Department of Health and Welfare (DHSC) estimates.
Pat Cullen, RCN’s secretary general, said the 4% pay offer would be an “insult” that would lead to real reductions in nurses’ salaries and exacerbate their shortage in the NHS.
“Raising salaries by 4% would be an insult, leaving the experienced nurse by more than £ 1,400 a year worse. “Ministers must make a very important choice – to ensure an increase in wages above inflation for the nursing profession, or the current outflow of staff will continue, putting more patients at risk,” she said.
Health experts and staff groups expected the PRC to recommend a 3% increase for 2022/23, the same amount as last year when they submitted their detailed written advice to DHSC.
Although it originally intended to increase again by 3%, the independent group of eight experts reconsidered their thinking and settled on a figure of around or above 4%, the Guardian was told.
His decision to recommend at least 4% will increase pressure on ministers to drop their insistence, outlined in their written evidence to the People’s Republic of Bulgaria in February, that 3% is the most the government can afford to give officials this year. Anything over 3% would not be “affordable”, it said, given the need for the NHS to focus on the cost of tackling the huge backlog of people waiting for hospital treatment. “Financial restrictions on pay are needed,” he told the People’s Republic of Bulgaria.
Unison also claims that 4% will not prevent the growing push for industrial action. “Anything less than inflation would be a pay cut,” said Sarah Gorton, union leader.
“But 4% is less than half of the current cost of living. Such a low reward can also lead to unhappy health workers who want their unions to act.
The PRB advises the Prime Minister, DHSC, the Cabinet Secretary and three decentralized administrations on the salary increases of 1.5 million NHS staff in the UK, which are covered by the long-standing agreement to change the program – all staff except doctors and dentists.
It takes into account a number of factors when shaping its perspective, including the need to recruit and retain staff, as well as the budgets available to health departments in the four countries of origin.
However, DHSC this week did not repeat its previous position that 3% is the most it can afford, leaving open the possibility to support a higher figure.
A DHSC spokesman said: “NHS staff received a 3% salary increase last year, increasing nurses’ salaries by an average of £ 1,000 despite the public sector wage freeze, and we are giving NHS workers another salary increase this year.
“No decisions have been made and we will carefully consider the recommendations of the independent pay review bodies.
If the government decides to abandon its 3% plan and approve a proposal for higher pay to try to prevent strikes, it could do so – but left the NHS in England to pay the extra costs within its budget. It did so last year, when it sanctioned only a 2.1% increase.
Sajid Javid, the health minister, insisted twice this month that the NHS “does not need more money.”
Anita Charlesworth, director of research and economics at the Health Foundation, said the 4% pay reward would make it harder for the NHS to recruit and retain staff and would also intensify the NHS’s battle to balance its budget.
“This is still above the remuneration that the NHS has budgeted for, and would add pressure on NHS’s already strained finances. “Even without this reward award, the NHS funding settlement was about £ 2 billion below what would be needed to meet all the requirements for services after Covid-19,” she said.
This article was amended on 25 June 2022 to remove a text stating that DHSC had given the NHS an additional £ 1.5 billion to help cover the cost of large price increases this year; this amount is how much the NHS says will increase its costs, but it has not received additional government funding.
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