Ontario’s power system is looking for more power producers as demand rises and a major nuclear plant nears retirement, a process that is likely to provide more natural gas generation as the government seeks to end reliance on it.
This means that over the next two decades, greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector will increase.
But the power system operator says Ontario is already maxing out hydropower, while solar and wind rely on the weather, and natural gas generation can provide the reliability and flexibility needed to support green initiatives and the resulting increase in electricity demand. such as from electric vehicles and electric arc furnaces in steel production.
By around 2038, the Independent Electricity System Operator predicts that the net reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from electric vehicles will offset emissions from the electricity sector.
While the IESO has acknowledged that more gas production will be needed in the near future, Energy Secretary Todd Smith has called for it to explore a moratorium on new gas installations.
“We want to get to net zero,” Smith said in an interview.
But he noted that an IESO report last year examining whether natural gas production could be shut down by 2030 found that it would lead to intermittent power outages and higher electricity bills.
“We need to ensure that we have a reliable system and one that is affordable, and if we have an affordable electricity system then we will see electrification happening in other areas to reduce emissions,” he said.
Interim NDP Leader Peter Tabuns, also a staunch party energy critic, said it was difficult to reconcile the push for more gas production at the same time as exploring a moratorium.
“They hit the gas and hit the brake at the same time,” he said.
“I would say their interest in getting more proposals for gas plants is probably much more indicative of where they’re going than any words about ‘Tell us what we can do to reduce gas flaring in the future.'”
Roop Carrivo, director of the Environmental Energy Institute at the University of Windsor, said Ontario needs to move away from natural gas production, but it’s very difficult to do.
“It’s incredibly reliable, quite efficient and, until recently, it’s been quite cost-effective,” he said.
“But it’s a bit disappointing to me that there isn’t more focus on pushing for more renewables, even though it’s apples and oranges for sure.”
Renewable energy in Ontario comes with quite a bit of political baggage. Electricity prices became a major source of anger ahead of the 2018 election, when the Liberals were reduced by a majority government to losing official party status.
The bills had doubled over the course of a decade, driven in part by the Liberals’ green energy initiatives, which see consumers pay above-market prices to power producers who have long-term contracts.
The Progressive Conservatives canceled 750 of those contracts during their first term, saying the province didn’t need the power and the contracts increased costs for ratepayers.
Tabuns said these cancellations have worsened the supply situation.
“There’s just no two ways about it,” he said.
The energy minister said that while Ontario expects supply shortages “for a short period of time while we get these nuclear reactors back on the grid,” canceling the green energy contracts is the right thing to do
“These projects would have continued to make the system unreliable and expensive,” Smith said.
“They weren’t going to fill the lack of reliable affordable electricity we’re experiencing. We have seen that unfortunately, with renewables, they are unable to fill the gap on a reliable basis. So we will continue to have to back up with other forms of generation to balance the need.”
The Pickering nuclear power station – which accounted for 14 percent of electricity generation last year – is due to begin phasing out in 2024.
Other nuclear units have been undergoing renovations this decade, with several out of service at the same time on overlapping schedules. The IESO says it is confident it can fill the nuclear gap with the procurement it is undertaking.
But even as these units come back online, the IESO predicts a widening gap in electricity supply as wider electrification begins, particularly in the transport sector.
Demand from the growth of electric vehicles and the electrification of public transport is expected to grow much faster, starting around 2035. Around then, the projected gap between needed and available electricity is expected to reach 5,000 megawatts – enough to power five million homes – in the summer, even if all current electricity producers renew their contracts.
An IESO spokesperson said the current procurement process will meet Ontario’s resource needs over the next decade, and the operator is looking to add more to keep the grid reliable in the long term.
It seeks to incorporate more emissions-free resources into the generation portfolio, including small modular nuclear reactors and storage capacity, as well as new energy efficiency programs.
Smith asked the IESO to provide recommendations this month on new conservation initiatives. It is also due to report to him in November on a potential moratorium on gas, as well as a plan to reach zero emissions in the electricity sector.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on July 17, 2022.
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