The Pac-12 initially chose to be patient with expansion. He figured he could wait and find the perfect fit or hold steady. As a result of USC and UCLA leaving for the Big Ten, the conference lost that luxury.
The Pac-12 Board of Directors met Friday morning and authorized the conference to explore expansion. The future of the conference is at stake. Said a former conference administrator to The Athletic, “I don’t know if they’re going to bounce back from this.”
The obvious hurdle: The Pac-12’s expansion options aren’t great. Despite its lack of football success and substandard media payments, the conference has always offered some level of stability. This is no longer the case. The exits of USC and UCLA have cracked the foundation.
Commissioner George Kliavkow’s first order of business is to keep Washington and Oregon in place. Without the Trojans and Bruins, the Pacific Northwest schools run the conference together. This won’t be easy. The second is finding the right schools that not only fit the Pac-12 profile, but also help the conference in upcoming media rights negotiations. Let’s take a look.
The first calls
San Diego State: The Athletic asked several industry sources about the Pac-12 expansion candidates, and each one started here. The Pac-12 has never seemed to take San Diego State seriously, mostly because it operates in the California State University system, but it’s time to give the Mountain West school a strong look. San Diego has the 28th largest television market, which isn’t ideal, but adding the Aztecs would give the Pac-12 a presence in some parts of Southern California. This cannot be ignored. Athletically, San Diego State has recently outperformed many Pac-12 schools in football and men’s basketball, so that’s not a problem. The football program has posted five 10-plus win seasons in the past seven years. The men’s basketball team has made the NCAA Tournament nine times since the 2009–10 season. Most importantly, the Aztecs have shown a commitment to take the next step. This fall, they are set to open the $310 million Snapdragon Stadium as their next football home. There is some momentum here.
Boise State: Another Mountain West program, Boise State has always been a popular expansion candidate simply because of its football success. That’s a good starting point. The Broncos will compete in the Pac-12. Additionally, the men’s basketball team just won the Mountain West title and made the NCAA Tournament. Geographically, Boise also fits into the Pac-12 footprint. (Not that geography matters anymore.) Biggest downside: The Boise market doesn’t add much media value.
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Houston and TCU: Nine months ago, with the sport still in shock after Texas and Oklahoma announced their SEC intentions, the Pac-12 was considering expansion. The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reported that Houston and TCU were the conference’s top targets. In the end, the Pac-12 ended up with 12, Houston settled into the Big 12, and all seemed well. Until Thursday. In terms of location, it works. Dallas-Fort Worth is the fifth largest media market in the country. Houston is eighth. It would also put the Pac-12 in the heart of talent-rich Texas, which would help with recruiting.
Houston makes sense. TCU raises an issue, as the Pac-12 is generally not interested in religiously affiliated schools. But over the past few years, TCU has distanced itself from those ties. The Pac-12 is in no position to be picky either.
Texas Tech: When it comes to Big 12 schools — and you can add Baylor and Oklahoma State here, too — it ultimately comes down to this: Since the Big 12 is pretty solid, how much interest do they have in saving a stunned Pac-12? According to industry sources, Texas Tech has long envisioned moving west, but that may have recently changed. Like Houston and TCU, it will bring the Pac-12 into Texas, but that’s probably the biggest upside.
It’s worth checking out
SMU: If Big 12 schools aren’t an option, SMU is worth a look. The American Athletic Conference school doesn’t have the football punch that San Diego State and Boise State could provide, but SMU brings media value to Dallas. Like Houston and TCU, adding the Mustangs would also help with recruiting.
UNLV: Another Mountain West school, UNLV would offer little to improve the Pac-12 in terms of competitive balance, but the Las Vegas market is attractive. In addition, the conference now has a presence in Sin City, holding its football championship and basketball postseason tournaments there.
— Max Olson, Christian Capel and Chris Vannini contributed reporting.
(Photo: Kirby Lee/USA Today)
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