Igor Shesterkin against Andrei Vassilevski.
That’s it. That’s lede.
This is the selling point of this series, a heavyweight slope between two of the best goalkeepers in the world, who face each other at the peak of their strength. It doesn’t get any better than that.
It’s nice when the same ice is working for both conference finals, and while the Western Conference will be dominated by offensive sentiment, the Eastern Conference will instead be a duel of goalkeepers for centuries. There are many star players on both sides who will undoubtedly contribute to the intrigue, but let’s face it: what will be most intriguing to them is how the goalkeepers deal with them.
Just like the battle on the other side, however, there is a clear favorite that slightly dulls the match.
Odds
It should come as no surprise that the two-time Stanley Cup defenders will be favorites in this series – the only surprise may be that they are favorites for the first time this postseason. This may be a bad omen for some fans, but most of all the model saw a big difference in talent between the Atlantic side of the bracket and the Metropolitan side. Florida and Toronto were in the heavyweight division and Lightning beat them with their experience. The Rangers aren’t quite at that level – and they have a similar lack of inexperience that can get in the way here.
And yet the Rangers are not to be underestimated. This will be the first time in those playoffs that there is something like a draw for the goalkeepers on the other side, but this is still a likely advantage for the Rangers. This is one that they have driven throughout the season to incredible success – and these days the front team also looks much more capable.
The big question, however, will be whether Brayden Point responds to Lightning. He was listed as a daily before the Panthers series and was given a lot of time to recover, but his status is still uncertain and does not seem close. The odds listed above are based on the return of points for Game 5, which can be generous. If he doesn’t play at all, Tampa Bay’s chances of advancing to the third consecutive Stanley Cup final are reduced to 62 percent.
This is not a guarantee, and New York can take comfort in the fact that its chances against the Hurricanes were similar.
Season statistics
Just a quick look at the Rangers’ regular season figures shows exactly why they have been the outsider in every game so far. Their violation was five to five lower. Improvements in defense were made at the end of the season, but not yet impressive overall. Big points and goalkeepers were so key components to their success, which is not the most sustainable way.
To Rangers’ credit, there were some improvements in the post-season below the surface where they needed it offensively, with more punches and generating quality chances (with results slightly below expectations). In defense, however, New York allowed more back – and much of that stems from a challenging round 1 series, where there was a small structure that could be seen from the back.
The Lightning, on the other hand, were a team of the top 10 at both ends of the ice at five to five in the regular season. In the playoffs, Tampa Bay saw that their offensive generation had declined slightly and the injury from the point did not help things move forward. The same goes for defense, but goalkeeping is the factor that makes the difference to make up for it. This also applies to criminal murder.
This is an area where Lightning will be tested, as Rangers can finish with an advantage. Their expected goal generation is not at the level of the regular season, which could bite them if New York fails to overcome its opponents’ attempts to block the midfield.
Tampa Bay’s strong play was more successful in the post-season than the regular season, but the results fell short of expectations. This will coincide with a penalty that is not as stable in defense as it was in the regular season, but (like Lightning) there is a goalkeeper to cover it up.
Tampa Bay has a way to show why they are the current champions. But there is a way for the Rangers to use Lightning in this match, retaining their status as a destructive outsider in the playoffs.
This series may very well prove which goalkeeping is more expensive as extremely crucial.
Breakdown of the list
Vasilevski is against Shesterkin on coincides.
On one side of the ice will be the elite goalkeeper, who has earned this reputation through his post-season experience. It is impossible to talk about running for the Stanley Cup of Lightning without remembering Vassilevski.
In 2020, he won 0.927 percent of the save and saved 13.7 goals more than expected in 25 games. A season later, he overcame this as Tampa Bay struggled to retain its title. In 23 games, Vassilevski had a brilliant save rate of 0.937. And based on the load he faced, he saved 17.3 goals more than expected. This is considered the best performance of the goalkeeper in the “data era” of the postseason of 2008. His 2020 GSAx is fourth, behind only Jonas Hiller in 2008-09 and Mike Smith in 2011-12.
When it matters most, Lightning knows they can count on Vassilevsky between the pipes. He has eliminated his opponents in the last six of seven elimination matches dating back to the 2020 Cup final against Dallas. IN only goal against him was allowed in the decisive position is by Morgan Rielly in match 7 of round 1 this postseason. Otherwise, he was perfect – with his best performance yet against the Panthers in a wide series match, when he saved 3.7 goals above expectations and deflected 49 shots. All together in the last seven clinching games, he won a GSAx of 16.7. It doesn’t get much better than that.
So it is no surprise that Vassilevski entered the post-season with the second best forecast among the position with 4.8 wins.
To start this postseason, he did not play the game of Conn Smyth of the caliber expected of him. But when it mattered most in this clinch series, he boosted his game. Vassilevski continued to shatter the Panthers’ hopes in four games. Against 13 expected goals against, he saved 10 goals, keeping Florida to just three results in the entire series.
Overall, in 11 games, Vassilevski has 0.932 percent of saves with 10.1 saves than expected (5.9 of which came in just two games with clinches in a series).
The only goalkeeper in the playoffs to qualify for the Lightning title is in the blue of New York.
Shesterkin leads with an estimated 5.9 wins. This happens when he is the best goalkeeper in the regular season. Together with 0.935 percent of saves in the regular season, he led the league with 37.2 saves more than expected, which was nine ahead of the next best, Frederick Andersen.
Despite some of the Rangers’ shortcomings in front of the net, Shesterkin gave his team a chance to win with 38 quality starts. And given the offense he stopped against what the team in front of him generated, he stole nine wins.
But there were some question marks in the postseason. Will there be a fatigue factor after taking Rangers out in his longest professional season so far? Prior to this year, where he played 53 games in the regular season, his longest season between the regular season and the playoffs was 44 games. Then there was a period of play when he returned to Earth late in the season, which could sow the seeds of doubt.
Shesterkin opened the postseason with an elite performance, but slipped into Games 3 and 4 in Pittsburgh during Round 1, when the team’s defensive structure collapsed completely. He returned to finish the series, and really boosted his performance against the Hurricanes, saving 11.4 goals more than expected in seven games. That brought him to a total of 15.8 in the postseason in 14 games, leading the league. So while Shesterkin may not have Vassilevsky’s autobiography, he built it with his NHL experience.
Meeting the goalkeepers in this series will be an absolute pleasure, but since the two goalkeepers are so close in their abilities, it is likely that goalkeeping is not even the deciding factor in the series. It can be a matter of how the superstars who keep the net are isolated from the team in front of them, especially in defense.
This is where Tampa Bay has an advantage in both the front and rear, thanks in large part to the depth that Lightning has gained in both positions. They are a team with few holes.
In defense, the group, of course, is led by Victor Hedman, who again has a wonderful postseason. He leads all Tampa Bay skaters in the GSVA with 0.56 wins, a pace of 4.2 wins, which is a decent nuance over what he envisioned. Winning 10 points in 11 games will do that, but his five-on-five game was as great as ever.
Lightning won 54 percent of the expected goals and 58 percent of the actual goals during the playoffs with Headman on the ice. It’s in tough minutes against some legitimate superstar talents from Toronto and Florida – both in trouble against Headman. The Panthers in particular looked very disappointed against Headman and failed to score a single goal against him in 65 minutes at five on five. Vassilevsky’s credit for most of this, but Hedman’s defensive ability also plays a role.
With him on the ice, Vassilevski’s life is much easier. The duo easily became the most important players of Tampa Bay so far.
Headman is not the only strong player there. Lightning also has Ryan McDonagh, Eric Chernak and Mikhail Sergachev – all of whom are expected to be the best. Part of the charm of Tampa Bay is having four such players on the blue line, a luxury that very few teams have. Allows Lightning to safely ice players like Zac Boghossian or Cal Foot without much trouble, as they will always …
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