Tim Michels’ defeat of former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch comes as Republicans seek to unseat Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in November in a critical battleground state that has flipped from Trump to Joe Biden in 2020.
Michels, a construction company owner and political neophyte, won Trump’s endorsement by more aggressively expanding the former president’s 2020 election lies — most notably in the intra-party debate over whether Wisconsin should try to derail a Biden victory there before almost two years. Kleefisch was considered the favorite at the start of the campaign. She spent eight years as former Gov. Scott Walker’s deputy and enjoyed the broad support of the state’s powerful Republican Party.
Wisconsin is the third state where Trump and Pence have endorsed opposing gubernatorial candidates. Trump’s pick in Arizona, Cary Lake, a conservative commentator and election denier, narrowly won the nomination, while Pence’s pick in Georgia, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp, defeated Trump-backed primary challenger David Perdue, a former senator, in a landslide victory.
But Trump prevailed in the showdown between his former teammates as the GOP finished filling out its slate of gubernatorial candidates in the five states — Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania — that flipped from Trump to Biden in 2016 for four years later. All of them are expected to be hotly contested again in 2024, and GOP victories in these policy fields this fall could help ease Trump’s path back to the White House if he runs again.
Wisconsin is also home to a critical GOP primary in the state legislature, where longtime Assembly Speaker Robin Voss, an outspoken conservative who has largely agreed with Trump’s claims for the 2020 election, is being challenged by Adam Steen. who won Trump’s support because Vos, in the former president’s judgment, was not optimistic enough about the right’s efforts to get the state to ensure his defeat.
Meanwhile, Democrats were reveling in the anticlimactic finish to a Senate primary that many expected to be hotly contested. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes will win the Democratic nomination, CNN predicts, after all of his top rivals dropped out within days. Those departures effectively secured the nomination and a showdown in November with Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, one of Trump’s leading defenders in Washington and a key target for Democrats hoping to retain or potentially expand their Senate majority.
Also Tuesday in the Upper Midwest, Minnesota Republicans will choose their nominee to face Democratic Gov. Tim Waltz, who is running for a second term.
Scott Jensen, a physician and former state lawmaker, nearly won the nomination after winning the support of the state party. But he made it official Tuesday night, CNN projects, edging out outsiders Joyce Lynn Lacy and Bob “Again” Carney Jr.
Jensen has been a longtime critic of Walz, most notably against the state’s lockdowns in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic. But he also suggested that hospitals inflated the number of sick people and questioned the safety and efficacy of vaccines that Jensen said he did not receive.
The race between Walz and Jensen could also help determine the fate of abortion rights in Minnesota. Jensen told Minnesota Public Radio in March that he would “try to ban abortion” if elected — a remark that Walz and other Democrats have already seized on. Late last month, Jensen backed away from his more aggressive language in remarks, saying he supported exceptions to allow abortion in cases of rape, incest or when the mother’s life is at risk. But Democrats, emboldened by Kansas’ vote last week to preserve abortion rights in a statewide referendum, are expected to make the issue a centerpiece of their fall campaign.
Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar, the progressive “squad” member of the state’s 5th Congressional District, will survive a surprisingly close primary challenge, CNN projects, from moderate Don Samuels. Omar defeated a well-funded primary challenger in 2020, but Samuels entered this race with more name recognition in the Minneapolis-based district and the backing of a big-spending super PAC.
Voters in the current version of southern Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District will choose a replacement to fill the seat of the late Congressman Jim Hagedorn, a Republican who died earlier this year. The special election in the GOP-friendly district includes Republican Brad Finstad and Democrat Jeffrey Ettinger. The winner will almost immediately head to Capitol Hill to serve out Hagedorn’s term. But both candidates were also on the regular primary ballot as they competed for their respective parties’ nominations in a new version of the district that was redrawn ahead of the midterm elections. Finstad, a former state lawmaker and USDA official in the Trump administration, will win the GOP nomination, CNN projects. Ettinger, the former CEO of Hormel Foods, is expected to win easily on the Democratic side.
Vermont history in the making
Vermont Democrats will nominate Congressman Peter Welch, CNN projects, to replace retiring Sen. Patrick Leahy, who will leave office next year after nearly 50 years on the job. Welch’s decision to run for Senate created a rarely open Democratic primary for the state’s only House seat, setting off a race that will almost certainly end in a history-making election.
State Senate President Pro Tempore Becca Balint will win the nomination, CNN projects, defeating Lt. Gov. Molly Gray for the nomination to replace Welch in the House. A heavy favorite in the fall, Balint is poised to become the first woman elected to Congress from Vermont, the only state that has never sent a woman to represent it at the federal level.
Little separated Balint and Gray on major issues, but their candidacies divided the loyalties of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Leahy. Sanders and leading progressives across the country have endorsed Balint. Gray had the support of Leahy, who donated to her cause and said he voted for her, even though he did not give an official endorsement in the race. Former Governors of Vermont. Howard Dean and Madeline Kunin also supported Gray.
But in a race where the candidates themselves were on par in fundraising, the influx of outside spending on Balint likely helped tip the scales. The LGBTQ Victory Fund has invested about $1 million in the race for Balint, who is gay. She also benefited from spending by the campaign arm of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, whose chairman, Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, along with progressive senators from neighboring Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey, endorsed her.
In Connecticut, there is little danger for Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont or Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal. Both were unopposed in the primary.
On the GOP side, former state Rep. Themis Klarides, a moderate, will be defeated by Trump-backed Leora Levy, CNN projects. A first-time candidate, Levy will face Blumenthal in November. Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Stefanowski was, like Lamont, alone on the ballot Tuesday — setting the stage for a rematch of their 2018 race.
This story has been updated with additional developments.
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