Liverpool’s final victory in the Champions League in 2005 is proof that football does not always make sense. Sometimes matches follow the course of logic, but inexplicable results often occur.
Real Madrid knows all about these inexplicable results. They qualified for this year’s Champions League final on Wednesday night, scoring three goals in six minutes against Manchester City.
Two of their goals fell after the 90th minute in normal time, before Karim Benzema scored a penalty in overtime to win the race. The Spanish champions will now face Liverpool in Paris at the end of the month.
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Luck cannot always be explained in football, but over the years the emergence of Expected Goals (xG) as an indicator has allowed certain elements to be better understood, in particular the finish.
Madrid were outplayed for most of their draw against Pep Guardiola’s men. They also struggled for control for long periods against Paris Saint-Germain, while looking defeated against Chelsea before somehow causing an impressive comeback.
Much of Madrid’s success in the tournament this season may be due to experience, mentality, moments and history, but they have also benefited from clinical completion and this can be highlighted with the help of xG.
In the elimination stages of the competition this season, Carlo Ancelotti’s men have generated shots worth about 7.8 goals according to xG – excluding penalties – which means that if they had turned their shots into goals at normal levels, they would have scored about seven or eight times in total.
In fact, Madrid opened the net 14 times. 14 goals from 7.8 xG reflect how Spanish teams perform above average when it comes to finishing their chances, with Benzema having a particularly big impact.
In defense of the game, Madrid allowed their opponents to generate shots worth about 10.4 xG and conceded 11 goals, which suggests that everything was roughly in line with expectations.
Simply put, Madrid experienced a hot series at the door during the elimination stages, scoring much more than expected. Their opponents, on the other hand, have turned their strikes into a fairly average standard.
The numbers related to the final of Madrid are important because the teams are not inclined to surpass xG forever. Over time, finishing tends to return to normal. Luck is running out.
It remains to be seen whether Ancelotti’s team will be so clinical against Alison Becker at the Stade de France, but their main performances ultimately suggest that they are relatively happy to compete in the final.
Their 7.8 xG is overshadowed by 10.4 generated by their opponents. If their knockout draws are replayed 100 times, it is reasonable to assume that they would be beaten more often than not based on what they have created compared to the opposition.
Unlike Liverpool, Madrid do not dominate the teams they face, creating better goal opportunities while allowing themselves a little at the opposite end. Instead, they reached the final stage, demonstrating an elite finish and moments of chaos.
The Reds did not count on the same degree of luck to get to Paris. They scored better in attack and defense than all their opponents and Jurgen Klopp will hope to continue on May 28.
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