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A suffocating heat dome has been scorching much of the southern United States for about two weeks and shows no signs of loosening its grip on the lower 48. Intense heat pulses set records in the southeast, with highs of nearly 105 degrees in parts of Georgia and Florida Panhandle and heat index values exceed 110.
The National Weather Service has raised heat recommendations in areas south, with 56 million Americans in areas whose peak will be in the triple digits.
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“The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will be combined to create a dangerous situation in which heat diseases are possible,” wrote the office of the National Meteorological Service in Tulsa.
The worst heat will hit the southeast on Wednesday and Thursday, but there are signs that a renewed boost of extreme heat will hit the plains and the Mississippi Valley over the weekend, prolonging uncharacteristic toast.
Numerous heat records have been set in recent days from North Dakota to Texas. In particular, Minneapolis reached 101 on Monday, for the first time over 100 since 2018. On Tuesday, Milwaukee touched the century-old mark for the first time in nearly a decade.
The heaviest heat will be from the Ohio River and the Tennessee Valley in Carolina, Southeast, South and Texas. Almost everyone will have at least in the upper 90’s and most have a decent chance to lean towards the lower 100’s. A number of records can be set throughout the South; here’s a breakdown of how hot most cities can get and whether recordings are threatened.
- Atlanta: Probably tying the record. The maximum temperature is expected to reach 98 degrees. The record is 98, set in 1964.
- Macon, GA: Probable new record. The forecast is to reach 102 degrees. The record is 101, set in 1925.
- Albany, GA: Probable new record. The forecast is to reach 103 degrees. The record is 102, set in 2009.
- Tallahassee: The forecast is to reach 102 degrees. The record is 103, set in 2009. But the city is projected to reach 100 for the first time in more than 1,000 days.
- Mobile, Alabama: Probably a new record. The forecast is to reach 101 degrees. The record is 100, set in 2009.
- New Orleans: Probably a new record. The maximum temperature is expected to reach 97 degrees. The record is 96, set in 2009.
- Montgomery, Alabama: The forecast is to reach 100 degrees. The record is 101, set in 2006.
- Birmingham, Alabama: The forecast is to reach 99 degrees. The record is 101, set in 1930.
- Huntsville, Alabama: The forecast is to reach 99 degrees. The record is 105, set in 1933.
- Nashville: The forecast is to reach 99 degrees. The record is 100, set in 1988.
- Lexington, Kentucky: The forecast is to reach 96 degrees. The record is 99, set in 1988.
- Memphis: Probably tying the record. The forecast is to reach 100 degrees. The record is 100, set in 1988.
- Tupelo, Ms.: The forecast is to reach 100 degrees. The record is 103, set in 1936.
- Jackson, miss: The forecast is to reach 99 degrees. The record is 101, set in 1969.
- Little Rock: The forecast is to reach 99 degrees. The record is 100, set in 1988.
In addition to the many records that are likely to be tied or broken, pay attention to the number of places flirting within a degree or two of the record levels.
In some places, heat and humidity will combine to give heat indices above 110 degrees. This will create dangerous conditions that can lead to heat exhaustion and heat stroke for those who exercise outdoors.
The records continue on Thursday
Temperatures are similar on Thursday, although the worst heat is suppressed just a little further south.
Here are some of the highest forecast temperatures and where records are expected to be set:
Macon, GA: Probable new record. The forecast is to reach 103 degrees. The record is 101, set in 1988.
Albany, GA: Probably tying the record. The forecast is to reach 104 degrees. The record is 104, set in 1944.
Tallahassee: Probable new record. The forecast is to reach 104 degrees. The record (June 23) is 103, set in 1944. The city can flirt with its all-time record of 105.
Thermal domes are high pressure ridges. They are distinguished mainly by clear skies, sinking air and abundant sun. It also diverts the jet farther north into the Upper Midwest or South Canada, deterring any adverse weather systems.
The stronger the heat dome, the hotter the air mass. The European meteorological model simulates that temperatures of 850 millibars, about a mile above the ground, are in an unprecedented category. Everything purple in the plot means something outside the data set of historical observations.
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By Saturday, the heat dome will shift slightly to the west, leading to 100 to 104 degrees readings in much of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi, off the coast of western Alabama, western Tennessee and southeastern Missouri.
There are signs that the thermal dome may calm down or eventually disintegrate early next week, but the National Weather Service’s Climate Forecast Center continues to highlight the chances of temperatures continuing above average in the coming weeks.
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