Tampa Bay: obviously still very good!
Well, here we are again where we started – and closer to the answer to a question we asked before this postseason. With a 2-1 victory in Tampa Bay on Saturday night, Lightning secured a place in the Stanley Cup final for the third year in a row, with captain Steven Stamkos scoring both goals and now flirting with greatness for all time.
Whatever you think of this winning goal, New York Rangers goalkeeper Igor Shesterkin is not to blame for either the game or the outcome of the series. Shesterkin played a great series. Tampa is just doing this with the teams: they have done it 11 times in a row in the post-season in the last three years. Whether the Rangers were tired or not from the previous two series, both of which went to seven games, Tampa made them look tired. After matches 1 and 2, Tampa outperformed, shot, overtook and eventually scored for Rangers. New York were also out of the coaches – a lot has happened to the teams facing Lightning lately. John Cooper has something to work with, but he is also an effective communicator: more of a corporate manager than a classic hockey coach.
Anyway, here’s how it played out on the ice: After being the first team to win in a row against Lightning goalkeeper Andrei Vassilevsky in three years, the Rangers stopped scoring. New York scored nine goals in the first two games, but managed to score only five more in the last four – only one of which was scored with equal strength. It just won’t cut it. Tampa Bay is just too disciplined a team, too willing to play hard defense when it’s important, and has too good a goalkeeper to rely on your powerful game to beat them.
You need to be able to overcome them in all situations. You have to be a team like Colorado Avelanche.
The avalanche is an offensive machine
There were perhaps only two points during the regular season in which Colorado Avelanche looked like a normal hockey team: at the beginning, when they fought from the door, and at the very end, when they went 1-6 in their last seven games. But this last stretch was either a coincidence or a complex forgery. We shouldn’t have been deceived anyway. The reality is that the Avalanche are a marauding hockey machine.
Just look what they did to Edmonton. My God. And yet, here’s the thing: although the Oilers were swept away, their offensive performance was pretty good! In most other situations, this would probably mean winning the series. Take a look at this comparison from JFreshHockey of situations from five to five to 60 minutes.
Microstat 5v5 Series Summary: #GoAvsGo Wins #LetsGoOilers
If you like insults, especially outside of rushing, this is the series for you. Avs created a lot … almost everything, and while the Oilers produced offensive enough to win most of the series, they failed. pic.twitter.com/J6O0Cxq25X
– JFresh (@JFreshHockey) June 7, 2022
In fact, Colorado is already a historic power plant. As Neil Payne wrote this week on FiveThirtyEight, this Avalanche team ranks 10th in points difference among all Stanley Cup finalists until the final round and is only, ironically, 1982-83 Edmonton Oilers for the second best win percentage. The 2022 Oilers, on the other hand, are a pretty good hockey team. But the Oilers are not a good enough hockey team to beat Colorado Avalanche. A team that is good enough to beat Avalanche will need to play very disciplined hockey in defense, have a goalkeeper with a clutch and the ability to stop a powerful attack.
Oh, and one more thing: they’ll have to be able to get past Cale McCarthy. It’s not an easy thing, because if we’ve learned anything from the Avalanche-Oilers series, it’s …
Although he can see the matrix
The debate over the best player in the NHL usually focuses on two players: Austin Matthews and Connor McDavid. This is understandable, given their respective ability to score goals and overall sorcery. Colorado striker Nathan McKinnon also enters this chat from time to time. And yet, all the while, perhaps the best player is actually his teammate, defender Cale McCarthy.
We remind you that Cale Although treats the NHL as a beer league on Tuesday night, carelessly smashes divisions with sand, eats cookies on the bench. 🍪 pic.twitter.com/USEvehgrhE
– Return hockey (@BringHockeyBack) May 4, 2022
In his 14 playoff games until the last round, Makar scored 22 points. That includes 10 points during the first round of the Nashville Predators, the most recorded by a defender in four playoff games so far. Includes the five he won in Colorado’s last game against the Oilers, the result of a game that no defender has managed in the playoffs since Al McInnis in 1994. Makar’s closest rival in defensive points this postseason, Rangers defender Adam Fox, he had 23 points … but in 20 games. Without taking anything from Fox, he was also not tasked with covering McDavid. Although it was. And he did it without even sweating.
Although he sees the matrix and bends it at will. Although he is the only one.
A touch of history
There is a superstition about NHL championship trophies in the conference: that touching the Clarence Campbell Cup (West) or the Prince of Wales Trophy (East) will curse your team to doom for the Stanley Cup. It is also common if the team poses with one of the trophies, they do it with solemn persons. The logic, if you want to call it that, is that it’s not the real thing. The theory is nonsense, of course: many teams that have touched on one of the two trophies have won the Stanley Cup. But tradition reflects the fact that no one is really interested in conference hockey championships. Only the Stanley Cup matters. But it’s still fun to watch a real-time team debate on whether to collectively choose a superstitious belief or not – or which version.
Joe Sakic is clearly not interested in superstition. But can other coincidences make sense? As we mentioned, this Avalanche team has the best record for wins in the 1982-83 playoffs in the Oilers final. As it happens, these Oilers faced the New York Islanders – and were swept away. It was the third consecutive victory for the Stanley Cup for the Islanders, the last time there was a three-peat.
Prior to the series against the Islanders in the spring of 1983, Oilers General Manager Glenn Sutter told the New York Times: “I don’t see that we’re much different from the Islanders. Only they have gone much further than us. And we would definitely like to replace them. ” Reflecting on their loss years later, the Oilers saw the differences. “They were a little more disciplined than we were and probably had a better work ethic,” Grant Fure said in 2019. As we walked past Islander’s room that year, we felt how hard it was to win, “said Wayne Gretsky. “They didn’t even celebrate, I thought, ‘They’re exhausted, I guess there’s more to give,'” Paul Coffey said.
Lightning proved this postseason why they are the first team after these islanders to play for the third consecutive cup. Now comes Avalanche: a high-performing, fast, dynamic team from the West. The vibes of the 80’s are strong right now.
Will we get three-peat?
Most of the time I’m bad at the predictions, but this match is felt right from the beginning of the post-season – maybe because I have the feeling that the guard is about to change. But is it time now? Colorado will give Tampa Bay the toughest challenge yet. They will be rested and hungry. They are perhaps the toughest opponent Lightning has faced in the final: they are a much better team than Dallas or Montreal. The avalanche can do whatever it takes to defeat Lightning, no doubt. But I don’t think they will. Tampa feels like a deeper team, mentally. And since Brayden Point is likely to return, they will also be deeper offensive. Tampa will understand Colorado – or at least Vassilevsky, and that may be all that matters.
A few months ago, my money was for Colorado. Now, I think Tampa Bay will have three peat. But before that we will have six games of great hockey.
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