Nicolas Sturgeon plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in October next year if her government gets the legal approval to hold it.
Angus Robertson, the Scottish government’s constitutional secretary, said it had given enough time to pass the necessary legislation, present the case to the Scottish National Party and run a campaign.
“The first minister made it clear yesterday that she intends to announce to the Scottish Parliament in the coming weeks a map of the route to a referendum we intend to hold next October,” he told BBC Radio Scotland.
“I am completely pleased that with the start of the unfolding of the prospectus, with the message that will follow on the map of the route on how this will be achieved, that we have a fully adequate window of opportunity for legislation, for people to look closely. the prospectus to be published by the Scottish Government. “
On Tuesday, the first minister released the first in a series of political documents setting out arguments for independence that will address some of the main challenges facing the “Yes” campaign, such as Scotland’s currency options, deficit and debt, and opportunities, she said. that independence will bring, such as reforming welfare and immigration.
Sturgeon acknowledged on Tuesday that they include potentially significant trade and business challenges if an independent Scotland rejoins the EU and has to impose a customs border with the rest of the UK.
Scotland will join the Common Travel Area, which still allows the free movement of people between the United Kingdom and Ireland, she said, but there will be customs challenges for goods and services.
In 2019, before the Covid crisis and the end of Brexit, trade with the rest of the UK accounted for 60% of Scotland’s total exports and was worth £ 52 billion; EU 19%, or £ 16.4 billion
The timetable set by Robertson depends entirely on the provision of legal powers to hold a new vote.
The 2014 referendum was organized only because the then government of the Coalition of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats in Westminster gave it legislative consent under section 30 of the Scottish Act. Many constitutional lawyers and pro-British parties believe this is the only legal way.
Since 2014, Theresa May and Boris Johnson have repeatedly refused to do so again, although Scotland voted strongly against Brexit and a series of polls in 2020 showing the support of the majority for independence. Recent opinion polls suggest a “no” vote is imminent.
Sturgeon said on Tuesday that he would soon set out other ways to make the second referendum legitimate in a statement to lawmakers, but declined to give further details.
Scottish conservatives have accused Sturgeon of holding an illegal referendum on the “wild cat”. Craig Hoy, the party’s chairman, said: “Nicola Sturgeon has come close to approving a plan to push forward with an illegal vote, and Angus Robertson doubled that today. This reckless pressure for a new referendum will hurt Scotland, when the whole focus must be on rebuilding Covid and the global cost of living crisis. “
If Sturgeon decides to hold a referendum without a Section 30 order, the new referendum legislation will also need to be approved by Holyrood’s presiding officer. He may also face multiple legal challenges, until the last hearing in the UK Supreme Court.
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The process and the issue must then be approved by the Electoral Commission, and the UK government may also call general elections before January 2025. All these steps could delay the date of the referendum or prevent it from taking place.
She said Scotland would learn lessons on how to build the best and most seamless border with England and Northern Ireland after independence, learning lessons from the current crisis over the Northern Ireland Protocol.
“There will be customs and regulatory issues in trade if we are in the single market,” she said. “I think the benefits of the single market outweigh the challenges there. What I am telling you very frankly is that we need to determine how these challenges will be met. “
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