NHS staff look set to receive a pay rise of just half the rate of inflation, a move which will force the health service to make more than £1bn of cuts and could spark a wave of strikes.
Senior NHS figures expect ministers to give staff increases of between 4% and 5% when they announce on Tuesday how much public sector workers will be paid in 2022-23.
However, they warned that even this higher figure could still trigger strikes, as health unions threatened to ballot their members for possible strike action if this year’s agreement is below inflation, which is 9.1%.
The government is due to reveal on Tuesday afternoon details of pay rises for a wide range of public sector workers, including judges, police and senior civil servants, as well as specific deals covering NHS staff, doctors and dentists and senior NHS managers.
Ministers originally planned to increase NHS staff by 3%. But the rising cost of living is believed to have persuaded them to make a remuneration of something between 4% and 5%.
The NHS pay review body, which advises ministers, is understood to have recommended that all 1.5 million UK NHS staff covered by the long-running Program for Change agreement – which covers all but doctors and dentists – receive 5% increase.
However, the government is likely to provoke a row with NHS England by refusing to cover the costs of any award above 3%, a ploy that could cost the service up to £1.8 billion.
Earlier this month, NHS England took the unusual step of publicly warning that any such move by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and the Treasury would force it to cut investment in key areas including cancer and primary care.
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“Whether NHS staff get 4%, 4.5% or 5%, the unions won’t take it, given that they are demanding rises that are at least in line with inflation.” They will have to go ahead with bulletins about possible industrial action,” said one senior NHS official.
Danny Mortimer, chief executive of NHS Employers, said a 5% award would damage the service’s attempts to retain and recruit staff. “The government needs to make this decision with its eyes open to the potential consequences of a below-inflationary increase,” he said.
The British Medical Association (BMA), the doctors’ union, has made it clear that it wants the increase for medics to at least match inflation, given the real erosion of their wages in recent years.
“Anything less will be met with serious and justified anger from our members, who are fed up with the government’s continued failure to recognize their efforts not only during the pandemic but for many years before,” a BMA spokesman said.
The Scottish Government has already offered NHS staff 5%. However, several unions rejected this as too little and started voting their members.
Sarah Gorton, head of health at Unison, said: “The Government says it is committed to the NHS, but a pay rise that is well below prices will not take the heat out of the staffing crisis.
“Ministers must avoid stumbling into unnecessary controversy by giving a fair pay rise that protects patients and the NHS too.”
DHSC has been approached for a response.
Teaching unions expect the government’s announcement on Tuesday to confirm a rise of up to 9% for new teachers to help boost starting salaries to the £30,000 promised in the Conservatives’ 2019 election manifesto, but just 5% for the huge a majority of teachers, which could lead them to vote for strike action in the fall.
Patrick Roach, the general secretary of teachers’ union NASUWT, said: “The announcements coming out of the government in recent days have not come close to addressing the real impact of the massive teacher pay cuts of the last 12 years and the worst ever spending crisis life of 50 years.
“If the government is hoping that teachers’ anger will dissipate over the summer holidays, they are wrong. Pay that is below inflation will be another pay cut for hardworking teachers.
Last month the National Education Union, the country’s biggest teachers’ union, warned then education minister Nadhim Zahawi that ministers must back higher “inflation plus” pay for teachers or face industrial action in the autumn.
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