Even before Boris Johnson delivered his vicious exit speech, the focus of Conservative MPs had already switched to who might succeed him – and unlike in 2019, when he was prince across the water for months, this time there is no clear successor.
Rishi Sunak, who quit the Treasury on Tuesday minutes after Sajid Javid’s departure, was widely seen as the favorite until a series of missteps, including the botched Spring Statement.
He is still performing strongly in the polls – not least because he is better known than many of his potential rivals – but after the furore over his US green card and with some Tories irritated by the growing tax burden on his watch, it now seems much less on impact dribbling.
That lack of an overwhelming favorite is part of the reason a whole host of candidates, from Grant Shapps to Jake Berry, haven’t ruled out a run for the top job (and, incidentally, helped Johnson stick around longer).
Tory leadership contests are anything but unpredictable: in 2016, Michael Gove threw Boris Johnson out of the race, and Andrea Leadsom dropped out after appearing to have a “motherly” interest in the country’s future than the childless Theresa May.
In 2019, favorite Johnson was anointed, but only after a spirited race that saw Matt Hancock handing out ‘Let’s Move On’ branded merchandise and Rory Stewart cheekily photographing himself talking to strangers in a campaign he called #Rorywalks.
This fledgling race has already thrown up some surprises. Nadhim Zahawi was seen as a strong contender before taking over as chancellor on Tuesday, drawing up plans for a major economic speech next week, then publishing a letter less than 48 hours later calling on Johnson to resign. As one senior player on the back bench said: “He made himself look like a button.”
Other lawmakers cautioned against writing off Zahawi, the smooth face of the vaccine program, who already had a campaign plan with the help of Linton Crosby’s consulting firm.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, who had been seen as a potential front-runner, was caught thousands of kilometers from the G20 summit as her rivals busily signed up supporters on Thursday (some had been doing so quietly for months, of course).
One senior Brexiteer suggested that some MPs who might have supported Truss had lined up instead for the staunchly pro-Brexit attorney-general Suella Braverman. Her supporters hope she can play the role intended for Leadsom in 2017 – sneaking through the MP vote to the last two and then wooing right-wing members of the party.
Others suggest that members who enthusiastically backed Boris in 2019 after Theresa May’s painful period of clumsy campaigning and parliamentary gridlock may now be returning to safer hands after three years of chaos.
Sunak, Javid or Jeremy Hunt could fit that description – although it seemed telling that some key Tories in the One Nation group were throwing their weight behind relative deputy Tom Tugendhat rather than waiting to hear Hunt’s offer.
Javid and Hunt’s teams said Thursday they would continue drilling before making a final decision on whether to do so.
Javid’s supporters hope he will be given credit for hastening Johnson’s exit by being the first cabinet minister to resign – although Sunak followed minutes later in a move both sides claim was not coordinated.
Team Hunt believes he could benefit from being on the backbenches rather than being tainted by an association with Johnson, who polls show is deeply personally unpopular with the public. But after he was soundly beaten in the run-off last time, the One Nation group may decide to pin their hopes elsewhere.
Labour’s darkest fear is Penny Mordaunt, the affable and outspoken Brexiteer who is said to perform well in focus groups. They believe Sunak will struggle to stitch together the electoral coalition Mr Johnson built in 2019 between Leave-voting ex-Labour seats and the Tory heartlands.
In just a few days, the likely shape of the race for Britain’s next Prime Minister will be much clearer; but when the starting gun is fired it looks wide open.
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