In December 2016, just six months after the Brexit referendum, there were by-elections in the Slyford and North Heikeham, Lincolnshire constituencies, part of an area where 62% of voters supported leaving the EU. The local Tory MP has resigned over his differences with Theresa May and her government over his treatment of refugees, international aid and attempts to distract parliament from the Brexit process – sparking a contest determined by the idea that face the EU and get out of its grip as soon as possible. The Tories campaigned under the slogan “Brexit means Brexit” and the promise of a “completely independent, sovereign country” and won over 50% of the vote, with Ukip by far second.
When I spent time there, what was interesting was not the rather muted battle between the parties, but the glaring division between the generations, which was clear as soon as I started talking to the people. At one end of the spectrum, most people over the age of 60 were still concerned about the EU, equally vocal on a number of issues surrounding it, and worried that Westminster might somehow hijack Brexit. But everyone under the age of 30 answered questions about such things, either with opinions about staying, or shrugged indifferently.
“I think the older people voted to leave,” said a woman who fit snugly into the first category.
“They want to see this country as it was,” her husband suggested. “All old values are gone, aren’t they?” There doesn’t seem to be much pride in the country. “
As has long been the norm, these sentiments are often blurred by rather harsh views on immigration and allegations of shady forces trying to deny Britain’s fate. But when we talked to students at a nearby college for further education, the only political issues that seemed to be taken into account were the almost inability to find a place to live and the lack of good local jobs: any talk of nationality and affiliation. they were endless blank stares, almost as if I spoke another language.
Six years later, despite the declining popularity of the government, Boris Johnson maintained this division in purulence. His attempts to move away from his recent no-confidence vote focus on his government’s battle with “liberal left-wing lawyers” and the European Court of Human Rights for a truly mind-boggling asylum policy; and his reckless approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol has to do with the idea that if all else fails, the Brexit wars will have to be restarted. The mixture of nostalgia, militancy and zealous belief in “sovereignty” – whatever that means – that came to the fore in 2016 has never really disappeared. Moreover, the proposal of conservatism for anyone who does not move from such abstractions is again a mystery.
What the government’s current distortions really betray is its concern about the long-term survival of the Brexit project. As they try to bolster a weaker prime minister, the Brexitists are not behaving like people who have won, but people full of fear and paranoia. On the day of Johnson’s no-confidence vote, Jacob Rees-Mogg warned – despite ample evidence to the contrary – that Tory opponents of the prime minister were “hostile to Brexit” and that the vote would “undermine the Brexit referendum”. Suela Braverman, an internal government think tank and attorney general, last week dismissed concerns about Northern Ireland as a “fabrication”. The right-wing press is full of talk of other conspiracies, including Keira Starmer’s alleged secret plan to bring us back to Europe.
Somewhere in their souls, smarter Brexiters probably know two things. One is that there will be no material benefits from living outside the EU and that its dire effects on the economy are now becoming crystal clear. The other reflects what I found in Slyford: the fact that the EU vote was the product of a unique political moment based on a delicate age-old demographics that has already changed, reaffirming the sense that hard Brexitism is doomed. It will fade as the future takes shape and the terrible consequences of Brexit become inevitable. But when panic strikes, the Tories’ strongest instinct is not to rethink. Instead, most doctrinaires and stupid conservatives see no choice but to double.
History often works that way. The guerrillas sometimes enjoy seemingly historic triumphs, followed by defeat and retreat, something that can still apply to both the referendum and Johnson’s victory in 2019. Among revolutionaries and zealots – a description that certainly corresponds to many Brexit Tory supporters – there is always a tendency to assume that if things slip, the obvious supporters of a cause will be as passionate and aspiring as the people at the top. and equally attached to their great ideas. The truth is that if a revolution fails to provide the most basic benefits to the people, it will sooner or later be founded; and that in any case most of us tend to get bored and frustrated by fanatics quickly. Johnson once showed signs of understanding: that seemed to be the essence of his promise to achieve Brexit. In this context, at the height of the cost of living crisis, the spectacle of him and his allies threatening to spoil it and keep it a secret is something.
In Slyford and elsewhere, I suspect that even many of the apparently hardened Brexitists of 2016 will remain cold, but that’s only half the question. Remember: 73% of voters aged 18 to 24 remain. Among the 25-34 age group, this figure is 62%. Three years ago, when the hardcore Tories picked up the union and flirted with Brexit without a deal, 68% of those over 65 said they supported the move, but the figure of 18-24 is a measly 14%. Does this provide a solid foundation for the future of the Tories, based on militancy and endless battles with Brussels?
Obviously not, and the same refreshingly encouraging argument can apply to the political present. If the Conservatives lose the by-elections next week in Devon and West Yorkshire, we will probably hear a lot about Partygate and people’s doubts about the prime minister’s suitability for the post. What we must also take into account is something that will become increasingly apparent: the fact that Johnson and his stubborn allies are beginning to look like generals fighting in the last war, deliberately forgetting how much their homeland is changing, and the futility of their tattered cards.
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