Saturday, June 11, 2022, 8:55 a.m. – Parts of the prairies will be for an extended period of volatile weather, with the potential for a storm this weekend and then a major system early next week that will bring the desperately needed rain in areas that have a severe lack of moisture.
This could be a rather turbulent weekend on the prairies, marking the beginning of a long period of volatile weather that will continue next week. For some, this will be undesirable, as there may be severe storms, but for areas experiencing significant drought conditions, this will be great news. The rain from potential storms over the weekend and a large system early next week could significantly exacerbate the rainfall deficit. More about what you can expect in the coming days, below.
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THIS WEEKEND: CHANCE TO RETURN IN HARD TIME
A low-pressure system moving in the region will bring a widespread risk of thunderstorms in all three provinces this weekend.
The most common risk of storms will fall on Saturday afternoon, as the low brings a lot of instability and increase in the region. Some thunderstorms can reach severe limits.
We look at two main areas at risk of severe thunderstorms. The largest area covers eastern Alberta and a small part of western Saskatchewan. Another area threatened by severe storms stretches from southeastern Saskatchewan to southwestern Manitoba.
Any storms that form in and around risk areas on Saturday can lead to heavy hail and strong gusts of wind.
We will see a renewed chance of storms on Sunday, with more areas at risk of reaching severe limits. Eastern Alberta through south-central Saskatchewan and southeastern Manitoba, including Winnipeg, could have severe storms. Similar threats with storms on Saturday, with heavy hail and strong gusts of wind as the main dangers.
After the weekend, we need to start looking forward to the next big storm, which will arrive early next week.
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FROM MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY: MAIN SYSTEM APPROACHING WEST
We are mired in extreme drought conditions on the western prairies.
The latest update of the Canadian Drought Monitor, released on May 31, shows that almost the entire southern half of Alberta is struggling with severe or extreme drought. This intense drought also extends to parts of southern Saskatchewan.
Fortunately for growers, a storm is on the horizon that can bring beneficial rains to areas that need it most.
A low level above the Gulf of Alaska has led to prolonged bad weather on the West Coast in recent days. This stubborn pattern will cause it to swing over the Pacific Northwest this weekend before rising north to the western prairies.
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This trough will create a low-pressure system as it twists the Rocky Mountains, leading to several days of rainy weather in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan. The low pressure system may not move anywhere in a hurry, leading to several days of rainfall in the affected areas.
Rainfall is likely to begin in Alberta on Monday and continue through Tuesday. Rainfall will continue even longer in Saskatchewan, with rainfall occurring later on Monday and continuing until Wednesday.
Although it is still too early for specific amounts of rainfall, significant rainfall is likely to fall in the areas most in need. Be sure to check often as we approach the storm and forecasters refine their forecasts for the region.
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