Southern Ontario has dealt with a remarkable stretch of dry weather in the middle of summer, with precipitation readings coming in well below what you’d expect for this point in July. We are looking forward to some rain to reduce those deficits on Sunday and Monday. A sticky spell of heat and humidity will also pile in as the week goes on. More on the storm risk and muggy weather ahead below.
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Sunday: Heat rises, storm threat increases in southwest
The ridge that has brought high temperatures across the prairies over the past few days will begin to slide east to finish out the weekend, allowing temperatures to rise across much of Ontario for the day on Sunday.
Daytime highs will approach the 30-degree mark for people in rural and eastern Ontario, with Ottawa and Sudbury on track to reach that mark Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler in southern Ontario as clouds and thunderstorms move in from the southwest.
An extended cold front extending from the eastern Prairies into northwestern Ontario will continue to bring widespread scattered storms Sunday to the latter region where storms could become severe.
To the south, the risk of thunderstorms will increase in southwestern Ontario later Sunday afternoon and evening as a warm front approaches the region from the state. The best chance for storms will extend from Windsor to London, with the Huron Coast and Niagara region potentially affected by thunderstorms by evening.
Storms should remain below strict limits, but gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible.
Monday: Steady rain, rumbling thunder for the morning commute
The same disturbance responsible for Sunday’s thunderstorm potential in southwestern Ontario will bring a solid portion of rain across parts of southern Ontario early Monday morning.
Rain will spread over the northern shores of Lake Erie before sunrise, moving into the Niagara region and Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in time for the Monday morning commute.
It will be steady, much-needed rain for an area that hasn’t had much rain in recent weeks. Watch out for slippery roads as you start the day, and don’t be surprised if there’s a rumble of thunder mixed in.
Rain should taper off by late morning in the GTA, pushing into eastern Ontario and the National Capital Region by midday.
The border in northern Ontario will continue to move east on Monday, bringing the threat of severe storms in the afternoon for areas stretching from Kenora to Timmins and into central Quebec.
There is a chance for thunderstorms to reach severe limits in the latter region, expanding into southern Quebec, with the possibility of strong winds, small hail and heavy rain with all reaching warning criteria.
Clouds and rain will help keep temperatures on the cooler side again for the day on Monday, with most areas only climbing into the mid to upper 20s by the afternoon peak.
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The week ahead: Heat and humidity increase across southern Ontario
Heat and humidity will make a triumphant return to southern Ontario by Tuesday. Temperatures will top the 30-degree mark for most of the GTA, with high humidity making things feel more like the upper 30s.
As we move into Tuesday, a cold front has the potential to change direction and sink into the southern parts of the province. That will bring the threat of more rain and thunderstorms, especially in southern Ontario, where some areas have only received less than a quarter of the normal monthly rainfall.
The sweltering heat will continue into Wednesday, with high humidity again sending humidex readings into the upper 30s in the afternoon.
We can expect warm temperatures to stick around for the rest of the week into the weekend. Daytime highs will creep into the upper 20s, which is above Toronto’s seasonal high of about 25C for the third week of July.
Thumbnail courtesy of Kelly, taken in Stony Creek, Ontario.
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