After a few days of high heat and humidity, relief from the heat will come when we head out for the weekend, but this relief will come at a hefty price on Thursday. A cold front that is pushed into the warm and unstable air will cause the risk of strong thunderstorms that will stretch all the way from Toronto to Montreal. Confidence is highest with strong storms in the afternoon and early evening in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, where storm dynamics appear to be most favorable for strong winds, heavy hail, torrential rain and even possible tornadoes. In addition, the falling temperatures will lead to a beautiful weekend for Father’s Day for most. More about the severe threat of a storm on Thursday and what to expect in the coming days, below.
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A cold front invading southern and eastern Ontario will put the region at risk of severe to severe thunderstorms on Thursday.
Depending on the weather on the front, with peak heat during the day and atmospheric instability, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec will see the threat of the strongest thunderstorms to occur. Here the dynamics of the storm seem to be most favorable for strong winds, heavy hail, torrential rain and even a possible tornado.
Through the Greater Toronto (GTA) area and the South Villa, the confidence in the storm is less and is likely to be more isolated by nature.
However, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out in the early afternoon in the GTA with torrential rain, strong winds and hail are the main threats.
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The GTA’s eastern borders to eastern Ontario will have greater potential to see some scattered storms by mid-late afternoon. Those traveling on Highway 401 need to be on the lookout for rapidly changing weather conditions at times.
“The type of storm in southern Quebec will be more widespread and linear in nature, with the potential for a developing wave line that will lead to strong destructive winds,” said Kelly Sonnenburg, a meteorologist with The Weather Network. Heavy hail, torrential rain and an isolated tornado are also possible.
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The storms are likely around dinner in St. Lawrence and will move to the Eastern Towns in the evening. Several rounds of storms are possible for southern Quebec, including the city of Montreal. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the region on Thursday morning.
“Water activities can be dangerous due to strong and sudden gusts of wind over water bodies,” the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) told the watch. “Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder strikes, go indoors!”
A cold front dive south on Friday will bring a new round of storms to parts of eastern Ontario and southern Quebec, but atmospheric dynamics do not seem so conducive to stronger storm development.
SAVED DAY OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEFORE A PLEASANT AND REFRESHING WEEKEND ON FATHER’S DAY
Before the storms and the cold front appear, we will have to sweat another hot day on Thursday.
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Daily high temperatures will become even hotter than they were on Wednesday, with high temperatures ranging from the top 20 to the lower 30. Humidex values will be in the top 30 to the lower 40. Storm weather will have a significant effect on high temperatures.
Friday looks like a wonderful day after the cold front. Temperatures will drop to about seasonal for the day, with rainfall and thunderstorms likely in eastern Ontario.
We are looking forward to a “sunny” weekend in Ontario, as this cooler model is temporarily settling in for a few days. Abundant sunshine, lower humidity and pleasant, albeit slightly below seasonal, temperatures will prevail. This will be a fantastic Father’s Day for any outdoor plans.
In addition, a warming trend is expected in the beginning and middle of next week, as the heat wave over the Midwestern United States is trying to spread to the region. There is uncertainty about where the line between tropical heat and humidity will be compared to more comfortable conditions.
Southwest Ontario is likely to have a few days of excessive heat with humidity until the 1940s. This model favors several MCS (mesoscale convection systems) near the warm front. Cooler weather is expected to return at the end of the week and weekend.
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Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest conditions in Ontario and Quebec.
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