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The poll shows a dead heat between former Wildrose leaders Daniel Smith and Brian Jean, with Travis Toews in third
Publication date:
Jul 23, 2022 • 16 hours ago • 4 min read • 30 comments UCP leadership candidates Daniel Smith, Brian Jean (center) and Travis Toews. Postmedia file photos
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The UCP leadership is shaping up to be a three-dog race, according to a Leger360 survey released Friday.
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It shows an early deadlock between former Wildrose Party leaders Daniel Smith (22 percent) and Brian Jean (20 percent), with former Treasury Secretary Travis Toews the only other candidate receiving significant support at 15 percent.
Andrew Enns, Leger’s executive vice president, cautioned that this is not a poll of UCP members, but of the public who identify as UCP supporters.
“Looking at the race, those three have had the most name recognition and so they’re taking advantage of that right now,” he said in an interview with Postmedia.
Former Children’s Services Minister Rebecca Schultz checked in at two per cent, as did MLA Todd Loewen and former Alberta Liberal leader Raj Sherman. Former transport minister Rajan Sowni had zero percent support, while former minister for status of women, culture and multiculturalism Leela Ahier did not register any support in the poll.
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Five percent of UCP supporters said they would prefer someone else as UCP leader, while 31 percent were undecided.
Dwayne Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University, said there is currently no way to know what actual support is among party members unless a pollster has access to the membership list, which is still disputed.
He said the poll probably reflects more publicity than actual politics at this point.
“More people know who Smith and Jean and Toews are than they know who Rebecca Schultz and Leela Iyer and Rajan Sawney are,” he said. “There are some interesting things in the poll, but it really doesn’t help us to prevent the leadership race.”
Leger360 surveyed 1,025 Albertans online — 341 from Calgary, 329 from Edmonton and 355 from the rest of the province — between July 15 and 17. As a non-probability survey, the margin of error is technically not reported.
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The biggest demand for the next leader among UCP supporters polled is a clear plan for Alberta’s economic recovery and growth, according to 42 per cent of those polled. That’s double the percentage who support a clear plan to restore essential services like health and education (21 percent). A clear commitment to conservative values of freedom and respect is a distant third at 18 percent. The clear plan to defeat Rachel Notley and the NDP in the next election was fourth with 14 percent.
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This is somewhat at odds with the core messages of the top two candidates in the poll, who have sought to join those who are pushing the freedom button, emerging from the pandemic. It could also prevent the party from needing support across the province if elected on a single issue basis.
A commitment to conservative values and freedom as a priority had only seven percent support in Calgary; it was 22 percent in Edmonton and 25 percent elsewhere in Alberta.
“I see Calgary as a critical battleground for the party,” noted Enns.
Bratt said that although only one percent of those polled indicated the need to unite the different sides of the party, there were concerns that the UCP would remain united depending on the outcome of the leadership race.
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If the new leader doesn’t emphasize a “clear commitment to conservative values of freedom and respect,” he said he wonders how that leader will appeal to party members who prioritize that.
“This is still a fragile party and I think the potential for a UCP split remains possible,” noted Brat.
While survey questions about UCP leadership were answered by Albertans who identified as UCP supporters, other parts of the survey were answered by all respondents regardless of political affiliation, and this included questions about Alberta being part of Canada.
The idea of secession from Canada did not find widespread support, with 16 percent of those polled supporting it. Seventy percent of Albertans want to remain part of the federation, while 14 percent say they don’t know.
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The survey also measured the temperature of current support among provincial parties.
While Rachel Notley and the NDP saw a slight increase in support, rising from 44 to 45 percent since March, Jason Kenney’s UCP came out on top, jumping from 35 percent to 41 percent. Barry Morishita’s Alberta Party rose from three to five per cent, Paul Hinman’s Wildrose Independence Party fell from eight to four per cent, John Roggeveen and the Alberta Liberal Party fell from four to two per cent, and other parties gained three per cent support among survey respondents.
jaldrich@postmedia.com
Twitter: @JoshAldrich03
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