Conservative rebels’ plans to oust Boris Johnson next week have been thwarted, with some worried that potential candidates to replace the prime minister are not ready to run.
An MP who hopes to defeat Johnson is now encouraging his colleagues to withdraw their no-confidence letters to avoid triggering a “chance” vote on Monday or Tuesday, the Guardian has learned.
The speed of the response to the prime minister following Sue Gray’s report on the Covid law violation on Downing Street surprised many, given the rebels’ lack of coordination. More than 45 Tory MPs have publicly questioned Johnson’s suitability.
Some lawmakers told the Guardian they intended to send a letter calling for a vote on Johnson’s post on Monday to reach the 54-letter threshold needed to trigger a vote but avoid overshadowing the Queen’s platinum anniversary this weekend.
However, those who are considering how such a vote will take place are at odds over the best time to impose it.
Some said they were concerned that the candidates for leadership had not yet mobilized supporters to garner the 180 votes needed for Johnson to lose a no-confidence vote.
They fear that if Johnson wins the race, he will refuse to retire and will be protected for a year. They believe lawmakers should postpone sending letters until after two by-elections on June 23rd, seen as tests of the prime minister’s ability to vote.
A source said Johnson still had the cabinet “wrapped around his finger” and that ministers considered potential successors were “too scared”.
Others are disappointed that Johnson’s ouster campaign has dragged on for months, and believe that after Gray’s report, it’s time to challenge his authority. They hope that the prospect of a close victory for Johnson, which could leave the Tory party paralyzed in preparation for the next general election, will be enough to persuade ministers to vote against him.
An agitated rebel complains about the lack of coordination between those who want Johnson to leave, saying, “Give me a Bond villain, for God’s sake.”
Former Conservative leader William Hague predicts MPs are “moving towards a vote … next week or around the end of June”.
Robert Hayward, a Tory colleague and poll expert, said: “If I were a conspirator, I would probably like this to last a while because it allows the talks to last longer. The by-elections on June 23 in Wakefield [and] in Tiverton and Honiton will be key.
“If I was a fan of Boris, I would probably like to get him off the road as soon as possible, because 54 is relatively easy. One hundred and eighty, which is the number of the vote of confidence, is another matter. “
Johnson’s allies argue that he is likely to face a vote of confidence, with Home Secretary Priti Patel calling the campaign against him a “side show” and telling the rebels, “Forget it.” She said: “We need to focus on doing our job. Our job is to follow people’s priorities. They will not thank the Conservative Party for talking about itself at a time when people have worries, anxieties, fears. “
A government source said that “those who complain do not understand how much British policy has changed since 2016, and Boris is at the heart of it,” adding: “The parliamentary party as a whole understands this and therefore supports it.”
However, not all members of the government payroll can be relied upon to support Johnson in the leadership race. Understandably, at least two have sent private letters of no confidence.
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Meanwhile, Andrew Bridgen, an MP from the back seat, who said he had recently resubmitted his letter after withdrawing it when the war in Ukraine began, speculated in a message sent to Tory’s WhatsApp group that number 10 would be said on Monday morning that the 54-letter threshold had been reached.
In a statement seen by the Guardian, he said he believed the vote of confidence would take place on Wednesday, adding: “The prime minister may win, but the vote against him will be bigger than he expects, as it is secret ballot.
Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Beckers Committee and the MP to whom letters are being sent, declined earlier this week to comment on whether the threshold is near. “I will keep my discretion,” he said.
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