PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES
sara.ziegler (Sarah Ziegler, sports editor): Eight exhausting months after we started this season in the NBA, we’ve finally reached our last two: the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors, just as everyone predicted in October.
We have to admit that the FiveThirtyEight model absolutely did not expect this to come: we gave the Celtics only a 12 percent chance to return to the finals in pre-season training, and the Warriors received a terrible 0.5 percent. We can be forgiven for our hesitation in Boston – the team in green did not include it until the middle of the season and since then we are firmly on board the Celtics train.
But Golden State, well … our model didn’t like the Warriors all season: Even after they started 18-2, we still just gave them an 11 percent chance of reaching the finals, and even now that they’re leading the West, we still don’t give them much of a chance. So let’s start with this: we give Warriors only a 20 percent chance of winning everything. Are you buying or selling Warriors?
zatzman (Louis Zatzman, contributor to FiveThirtyEight): I buy Warriors without hesitation at this price.
dubin (Jared Dubin, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I definitely buy at 20 percent. They are the favorites in the betting market.
james.jackson (James L. Jackson, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I buy Warriors more than I’ve seen others.
dre.waters (Andres Waters, FiveThirtyEight contributor): I’M BUYING … but I have to say I’m a Warriors fan. And I fully accept that bias.
sara.ziegler: So Dre is a fan and I understand that. But if you were to throw our model out the window (which I don’t recommend, LOL), what probability would you attribute to the Warriors in this series?
dre.waters: Sorry, Sarah, this model is already out the window. 75 percent, minimum.
james.jackson: My personal metric system is a bit rusty, but can I give Golden State a 60 to 70 percent chance of winning that?
dre.waters: That’s what we love to hear James! Any other hosts?
james.jackson: Fortunately Dre is objectively biased!
dubin: As the person who wrote our review of the season, I must point out that the model was particularly low on Warriors before the season for two reasons:
- He sees Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Gary Peyton II as the only players with a positive net in the predicted rotation. This turned out to be wrong, as at least according to RAPTOR, Andrew Wiggins, Kevan Looney, Otto Porter and Jordan Poole were also positive during the regular season.
- This severely punished them for the presence of Clay Thompson in the rotation, due to the way he handles long-term injuries. Clay turned out to be pretty good, considering all things, even if he wasn’t exactly the same player he was before the ACL and the Achilles’ tear. (He didn’t play enough minutes to qualify for the RAPTOR rankings, but in the end he turned out to be pretty close to neutral, not clearly negative. Given the way his shooting bends the defensive defenses, I’d say that this underestimates its impact.)
James.jackson: Clay will be really important in this series. Golden State is 5-1 when they score at least 20 points this postseason.
zatzman: I just dug up why RAPTOR hates Clay so much! He plays so well individually, but his results are rotten. Part of that is bad luck (opponents hit really hard when he plays on defense, and Steph misses pretty easy when he plays on offense), but he’s not quite what he used to be. And yet the fact that the Warriors were so dominant with such a muted influence on Clay is almost positive for them in the future, isn’t it? His influence can easily be huge in this series, which RAPTOR does not expect.
sara.ziegler: Or maybe RAPTOR knows the truth about Clay …
(Or maybe not.)
dubin: I think the key is that the defense doesn’t treat it as if its impact is muted. They’re still crazy because he’s CLAY THOMPSON. And with good reason, as he still hit nearly 39 percent of his threes this year.
james.jackson: The Warriors played the second-largest clutch time minutes this postseason (30) while shooting 50 percent in those situations. Boston only shoots 37 percent when it’s late and close, so I’m curious who thrives within those limits.
zatzman: We expect the games to be close when it’s late ?!
sara.ziegler: Nobody told the other playoff teams.
james.jackson: Both teams played with their food this postseason, so it won’t surprise me!
dubin: I’m pretty close to 50-50 in this series. This aspect of “playing with food” on both teams repulses me. They both have these weird stretches where they just give the ball to the other team. Both defenses are great, which can lead to this type of stretching of opponents.
zatzman: I’m with you, Jared – I’m probably more Boston-minded than everyone else here. Their defense could take things away from Golden State that we haven’t seen this year.
dubin: None of these teams have played with a team like the other in the playoffs so far. The playoff series are very different organisms, so the way they have played so far really has very little effect on how they will play in the finals.
I will be interested to see how much Looney and Time Lord we will get in this series. How often will both coaches be tempted to be young?
dre.waters: Time Lord is still a funny nickname, by the way.
james.jackson: Really, tbh.
dubin: Sometimes I like to call him the Lord of Time, just to imagine him a little.
sara.ziegler: đ€Ł
zatzman: In my opinion, the best chance for Boston is to change everything at the point of attack in order to try to deny the shooting of Golden State. Pick-and-roll switching is the type of high-volume protection that Steph and Poole have struggled with the most, and Boston is one of the best and most frequent users of the switch. Robert Williams doesn’t change as much as Boston’s other big players, so the Time Lord can reduce his minutes.
dre.waters: We know the Warriors like to be small: Their five-Curry, Poole, Thompson, Wiggins and Green squad is the second best team in terms of net rating (+15.7 points per 100 possessions) this postseason. So it’s easy to get to a point where we don’t see many moons. But Williams is a bigger question for me.
james.jackson: Al Horford’s ability to spread the floor can make Williams’ shortened minutes easier to digest. Horford has 28 three-pointers caught and shot this postseason, third in the league and most in the team.
dubin: Williams looked like he could barely move in Game 7. The Warriors don’t perform 100 pick-and-rolls a night, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to test his lateral mobility that way. (The Celtics would probably just switch in advance to avoid it and start another tactical chess match that way.)
sara.ziegler: I’m fascinated by how these chess moves will be played. What are the specific matches you have all had your eye on?
james.jackson: Whoever has the task of annoying Steph in the finals often fascinates me. Steph vs. Marcus Smart could be my favorite game.
zatzman: I agree! Steph is perhaps one of the greatest ballless players of all time, and Smart is one of the only players fast enough to stay with him and strong enough to push him away from his cuts.
james.jackson: I don’t have any odds on the flop.
sara.ziegler: OMG, I can’t wait to see them face to face.
dubin: Smart vs. Steph, 100 percent, and then what Warriors do for Jaylen Brown. I guess Clay will get the first leg, but that may change things a bit. And do they ever try something like Draymond on Jason Tatum or Brown? Maybe Smart’s Draymond to change Tatum-Smart pick and roll? I think this side of the ball is more interesting because it’s less clear.
zatzman: Draymond will keep everything, everywhere, at once.
sara.ziegler: Draymond in the metaverse.
james.jackson: Who wants to guess the Warriors player who has shaken the Golden State’s net rating the most in these playoffs?
Zatsman: Andrew Wiggins! An incredible defender and probably Tatum’s stopper in this series.
James.jackson: That’s right, Louis! With 16.2 points per 100 possessions!
It will also be interesting to see how the Boston bigs attack Luni. Without James Wiseman, Looney has to keep things to Golden State, as he did during those playoffs, and how quickly Boston gets him in trouble can narrow the Warriors’ lead to a mistake.
dubin: “Without Wiseman” hahahaha.
Does it still exist?
james.jackson: In our hearts and fantastic forecasts for 2022-23!
dre.waters: Yes, I think I’m extraordinary here. But I would be interested to see what Peyton does if he plays significant minutes in this series. If he plays, I think he might be allowed to try to keep Brown or Smart.
dubin: Oh, and the return of GPII can be huge, as it will give the Warriors another opportunity to guard.
sara.ziegler: Jinx!
james.jackson: The Warriors also like to use GPII as an attack screenwriter. It reverses their attack really well, so this can be a fun layer!
dre.waters: He made quite big baskets for the team this postseason as well.
dubin: The Celtics do that too. Tatum-Smart and Tatum-Derrick White pick-and-roll combinations are some of their best things all year long (and especially last round).
zatzman: With Peyton and maybe even Porter and Andre Iguodala back, the Warriors are really deep in guard and wings and really shallow in the big spot. To the point of James, if Luni gets in trouble, it will matter a lot! Both teams shoot a lot of threes, so if someone explodes on the edge, they will …
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