Researchers have warned that they expect cases of monkeypox to continue to rise this week as more infected people are tracked by health authorities.
More than 80 cases have already been reported in Europe, the United States and Australia, including 20 in the United Kingdom. The global figure is unprecedented for a disease that is usually limited in Central and West Africa.
Smallpox is not easily spread among humans, so doctors are puzzled by the outbreak and the occurrence of cases on different continents at the same time. The virus is transmitted from person to person only through close physical contact – including sexual intercourse.
The symptoms are usually mild – headaches, muscle aches and exhaustion – but smallpox also causes skin lesions that can become infected, leading to secondary infections.
“I’m sure we’ll see more cases,” said Charlotte Hammer, an expert at Cambridge University on emerging diseases. “First, health authorities are now – very actively – looking for cases, so we are more likely to spot people with milder versions that we may have missed or misdiagnosed before.
“In addition, monkeypox has an incubation period of between one and three weeks, so we are likely to see new infections among those who have been in early contact with the first cases of the outbreak.”
Monkeypox has been found outside Africa in the past, but the number and scope of cases in the current epidemic are unusual.
“We’re basically facing two possibilities,” Hammer said. “Either the virus is inherently different now, or maybe our susceptibility to it has changed. Alternatively, we may simply face a perfect storm of conditions that have allowed the virus to spread in this way. I think the latter scenario is more likely. “
One possibility is that the effects of past mass measles vaccinations are fading, leaving fewer people with protection against closely related monkeypox.
However, Professor Keith Neal of the University of Nottingham added: “Has the virus changed? Well, it doesn’t really look more deadly, although something may have influenced its transmission. And remember that this is a DNA virus and is unlikely to mutate at the rate of RNA viruses, including those that cause Covid or HIV. In general, I’m not very worried. “
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