Rising spending – caused in part by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – will be central to Sunday’s agenda, where leaders will simultaneously work to maintain pressure on Moscow while looking for ways to ease price jumps that have cost them politically.
This can be a challenging task. Russia’s energy bans have contributed to soaring global oil prices, but leaders have sought to ease sanctions that they believe have an effect on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economy. One area they announced: a ban on imports of new Russian gold.
“This is a key export, a key source of revenue, a key alternative for Russia in terms of their ability to transact in the global financial system. Taking this step breaks that capacity,” a senior administration official said.
The decision eased the divisions that excited American politics and institutions, which acted as a disturbing connotation for leaders watching Biden’s attempts to restore American leadership.
Here are a few things to watch at Sunday’s G7 summit:
Finding a balance
Biden and other G7 leaders will discuss ways to punish Russia while still running a volatile world economy during its first day of talks Sunday in the Bavarian Alps. According to a senior White House official, the talks will lead to some messages and “muscle movements.”
“A big focus for the G7 and leaders will be, you know, how not only to manage the challenges in the global economy as a result of Mr Putin’s war, but also how to continue to hold Mr Putin accountable in order to assure that he is subject to the costs and consequences of what he does, “said John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council as Biden flew to Europe.
Biden’s first engagement on Sunday will be a bilateral meeting with the host of the summit, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, followed by the opening session of the G-7, focusing on global economic issues that have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
“I think leaders will look for ways to do two things: one, continue to hold Mr Putin accountable, and increase the costs and consequences of his war on him and his economy,” Kirby said. “And second, minimizing, as much as possible, the effect of these rising oil prices and the way it has armed energy on nations, especially on the continent, but also around the world.”
This balance will determine this year’s G7, as leaders work to sustain their campaign to put pressure on Putin, while facing rising inflation, which is costing some leaders politically at home.
Leaders have agreed to announce a ban on the import of new gold from Russia, Biden said on Twitter on Sunday morning. Gold is Russia’s second largest export after energy.
Biden endured some of the harshest reactions as he saw his approval ratings fall amid rising prices.
“There may be growing pressure in US policy, in the sense that some people in the primaries we’ve already seen have said I don’t care about Ukraine. What matters is the cost of living,” said a European official. before this weekly trip. “And if the president gets a rebound in the polls because of his leadership in Ukraine, it dissipates very quickly. So it will have that effect. “
Division at home
Biden announced on Friday that the Conservative majority in the Supreme Court “made the United States extraordinary among the developed nations of the world” by depriving the nationwide right to abortion.
Two days later, he will come face to face with the leaders of these nations in the Bavarian Alps, leaving behind a rapidly dividing country whose divisive policies have attracted the world’s attention.
The White House does not believe that the decision or the fractures that are now dividing America will affect Biden’s discussions.
“There are real national security issues here that need to be discussed, and the president has no worries at all that the Supreme Court ruling will take that away at all,” Kirby said.
Yet four of the six fellow leaders Biden joins in Germany find the decision monumental enough to weigh on its own.
“I have to tell you that I think this is a big step backwards,” said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. This is a “devastating failure,” said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. French President Emmanuel Macron and Scholz were also critical.
It remains to be seen whether the solution will appear in Biden’s private discussions. But the fundamentally changed and divided country he left behind will never be as far from his mind as he presents it on the world stage.
Challenge China
At last year’s G-7 summit on the Cornwall coast in England, Biden forced his fellow leaders to insert a new hard language condemning human rights abuses in China in the final communiqué. At the beginning of the document, the group at times had heated conversations behind closed doors about their collective approach to China.
The issue could provoke tense talks, as some European leaders do not necessarily share Biden’s view of China as an existential threat. Yet the president has repeatedly made it clear that he hopes to persuade his fellow leaders to take a harder line. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened the president’s frequent warnings about autocracies against democracies.
On Sunday afternoon, Biden is expected to unveil, along with other leaders, an infrastructure investment program targeting low- and middle-income countries designed to compete with China’s One Belt, One Road initiative.
Beijing has invested billions in building roads, railways and ports around the world to build new trade and diplomatic ties. Biden has offered a similar program in the past, calling it Build Back Better World.
But with that name apparently retiring, the White House renewed its efforts in Germany.
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