The next general election will be all about the cost of living crisis. The question for the Tories today is: which leadership candidate has the best answer to this? Away from the drama of Westminster, everyone feels poorer and poorer. I filled up our Honda Jazz on the M6 on Tuesday night, where unleaded was selling for an eye-watering 205.9p a litre.
Labor MPs are already licking their lips at the prospect of arguing over the price of a loaf of bread with the Conservative party led by Rishi Sunak. Many can see the problems arising with the phenomenally wealthy Sunak, with his homes in Yorkshire, London and, uh, Los Angeles. One staunch Brexiteer MP told me that Sunak’s past (in particular his wife’s non-resident status and his green card) was his “Achilles heel”.
He said, “What are you going to do when you’re trying to protect the Red Wall, and these people spend so much time thinking, ‘This guy’s nowhere near me.'” Having a Rishi with his privilege isn’t going to work. It’s no good having the perfect leader if we’re in opposition.”
Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer exposed his party’s attacks at Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday when he asked about the tax status of leadership candidates.
That’s not to say Sunak didn’t see this problem coming down the line. We’ve seen him wipe his defensive lines before, including on Mumsnet Beijing a few months ago. The former chancellor’s response this morning was: “I don’t judge people by their bank accounts, I judge them by their character and I think people can judge me by my actions over the last few years.”
To me, Penny Mordaunt is a bit like the rebel Jeremy Corbyn in 2016, perhaps without the far-left political platform: a candidate the membership seems to like, but MPs less so. Like Corbyn before her, there is a striking lack of support for Mordaunt on her party’s front bench.
No wonder a senior member of parliament backing Mordaunt now gives her a 70 percent chance of winning the leadership race. Mordaunt herself is aware that she now has a real chance to take the prize.
The risk for the Tories is that not enough is known about Mordaunt’s policies. She is a bit of a blank canvas, as Theresa May was in 2016 (when ‘Brexit meant Brexit’, whatever that meant). The Tories will be looking to fill those gaps over the next few days. Lord Frost has already expressed his doubts about his former deputy.
No wonder Liz Truss launched her campaign today, pledging to “be bold” with the economy and roll back increases in national insurance and corporation tax. She needs to regain the momentum.
It is increasingly felt that the Tory leadership race is now Mordaunt’s to lose. The question is whether the final two will be Mordaunt vs. Truss or Sunak. Mord-mentum, indeed.
Note: Conservative MPs are voting now. The result will be announced by Sir Graham Brady at 3pm. Follow the latest developments on our live blog.
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