LEXINGTON, Ky. (WKYT) – Between ice storms, flash floods and tornadoes in December, it’s been a wild year for Kentucky weather.
Experts said a number of factors make the community more prone to certain things like this happening and also leave eastern Kentucky especially vulnerable to flooding.
Some call this a 1,000-year flood, meaning it has a 0.1% chance of happening in any given year. WKYT Chief Meteorologist Chris Bailey said it could be even rarer than that. He and others said it had been so much rain that it probably would have flooded other places. But not like that.
As a state geologist, research professor and director of the Kentucky Geological Survey, Dr. William Hanneberg tries to put the flooding in eastern Kentucky into perspective.
“We often talk about things being unprecedented, but I think this was an event that really was,” Dr. Hanneberg said.
Water once again showed its power over a place whose topography, according to experts, already makes it more prone to flooding.
“You might hear people say, ‘Well, why are people building in flood plains?'” It’s because in areas like many parts of eastern Kentucky, there really is no other choice,” Dr. Hanneberg said.
Its steep terrain and narrow valleys mean it often doesn’t take as much rain to cause flooding, but experts say the elevation in the mountains can cause more rain. Plus, Kentucky’s geographic location also puts us on the map for more precipitation.
“We are one of the few states that can get extreme weather every season. Our proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, which is now open for business, and the warmer waters down in the Gulf of Mexico have just delivered a lot of additional moisture to Kentucky,” Bailey said.
With all of these factors in place, some officials in Eastern Kentucky also worry that construction and development may not help matters.
“You don’t have that vegetation to hold the water like you always have in the past. It’s a combination of things…. We don’t usually see 10-12 inches of rain. We’re getting more rainfall along with the commercial development we have, and we need to do a better job of understanding the long-term implications of what we’re doing in our watersheds,” said Floyd County Judge Executive Robert Williams.
Bailey said the 2010s were the wettest decade in Kentucky’s history. A 2018 State Flood Risk Assessment suggests that flooding will increase over time.
“We’re in a period of extreme weather not only nationally, here in Kentucky, but around the world as our planet continues to warm — and it’s warming — we’re going to see more extreme events,” Bailey said.
The Kentucky Geological Survey also said it is possible that mining, especially surface mining, could affect the severity of flooding in the region. They said it is still too early to know if there is an effect in this event.
Experts believe that the community may witness worse disasters more often. Data from the state’s latest hazard mitigation plan already shows that presidential disasters are being declared more often here. Based on trends, the report concluded, Kentucky can expect an average of one to two disaster declarations per year for the foreseeable future.
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