The United States has a key role to play in Sunday’s presidential election in France, when voters in one of America’s oldest allies will choose between incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and his far-right opponent, Marine Le Pen.
The vote is seen as a referendum on Macron’s close ties between France and the rest of Western Europe and the United States, and Le Pen’s populist pressure for a more independent France.
Le Pen is considered close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and has signaled that there will be a change in France’s policy towards the Russian war in Ukraine if elected.
The US establishment is clearly hoping for Macron’s victory, although the Biden administration has publicly stated that it is closely monitoring the election and stressed that the race is a solution for the French people.
“I just won’t get ahead of a foreign election,” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said earlier this month. “Obviously we will be watching him closely and I am sure we will have more to talk about once the results are complete.”
Analysts say Marcon is likely to win another five-year term, but Le Pen’s third attempt at the French presidency surprised observers with its force.
Le Pen faced Macron in 2017, and her election strategy at the time was in line with and took advantage of the shocking victory of former President Trump in 2016. Trump then abstained from official approval but voiced support for her position.
Her return to the run-off position in 2022 shows populist support for strong right-wing positions among part of the French population – and dissatisfaction with Macron.
Le Pen’s victory will be seen as a victory for Russia and a defeat for the United States and NATO.
“If [Le Pen] “This will be the first major victory Vladimir Putin has secured since his forces were tested on the outskirts of Kyiv,” said Ben Judah, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
“This is a very important election for the United States,” he added, adding that Le Pen’s victory would replace Macron’s tried and respected leadership on the European and world stage with a leader who would be one of the least experienced, most the least respected and the least trusted. ”
Le Pen’s victory would also mean rejecting a closer, more integrated European Union (EU), which has played a key role in adopting sanctions on Russia in step with the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries that have united in the cause. such as Japan and Australia.
“All the dynamics we have seen over the last few decades of consolidating the EU and turning it into a species, rather a major player on the international stage, will all change from the process of integration to the process of disintegration in Europe,” Judas said. .
While recent polls put Macron ahead of Le Pen by as much as 10 percentage points ahead of Sunday’s run-off, its gains reflect what experts say is a policy strategy to seek to please the mass stream – to moderate some of its most extreme views and promote herself as a single, working mother, concerned about incredible inflation.
“Marine Le Pen has tried to become more popular and address his message to French blue-collar voters and is trying to attract voters who may feel abandoned by the left,” said Lor Palez, a former adviser to the French government. is active among the French diaspora in the United States
“Her strong performance in the elections shows that there is some public support for her position. We cannot ignore it, “Palez added.
The main issue for French voters is the so-called purchasing power, the rising price of everyday goods, gas and energy. And while the French hold Russia largely responsible for starting the war in Ukraine, their own portfolios have been squeezed by Western sanctions against Moscow.
Le Pen took advantage of these concerns as part of his campaign as he downplayed his historic position as a “largely pro-Russian, pro-Putin, anti-American candidate,” Celia Belin, a visiting fellow at the Center for the United States and Europe in Brookings, told Brooks. panel discussion.
“She focused on purchasing power, socio-economic issues,” Belin said, and this focus allowed people to “forget her kind of pro-Putin view.”
While Le Pen condemned Putin for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, she still advocated a more independent France from Europe, the United States and NATO – while the United States and its allies emphasized close co-ordination between these nations as an essential support for isolating Moscow and Putin.
“Le Pen no longer offers to leave the EU directly or abandon the euro,” said Palez, who still identifies her as a “Eurosceptic.”
Le Pen wants to reduce France’s contribution to the EU, leave NATO’s Supreme Council, increase scrutiny of imports and boost bilateral European ties, particularly with Hungary and Poland, two countries criticized as apostates for democratic freedoms.
“Its political identity is more of a ‘Europe of strong, separate nations,'” Palez said, referring to Le Pen’s vision that national laws have more power than consensus measures reached by the Council of the European Union.
This is an idea that is in line with the policies pursued by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban or Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, Palez added.
While Le Pen has gained more popularity, her strong performance is also a reflection of internal anger at Macron, who has been criticized for prioritizing the war in Ukraine over French concerns.
Macron announced his candidacy for president the day before the official campaign deadline and in a “letter to the French.” This has created a public perception that Macron sees the presidential victory as guaranteed and the election a “paperwork”, Belin said.
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“This kind of high political commitment really prevented him from emerging as a national leader, from taking care of the French and their problems, and at one point he began to create resentment,” she added.
Pales said Macron’s sense of indifference further necessitated a sense of disunity between the general public and the political elite.
“As in the United States, what people are most concerned about and what politicians are talking about doesn’t necessarily coincide,” she said. “This creates distrust of the elite and very fertile ground for populist movements.
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