Boris Johnson learned of the crushing defeats of the Conservative Party in two by-elections in the United Kingdom about 4,000 miles away, at the British Commonwealth Heads of Government Summit in Rwanda.
The British prime minister reviewed the losses of the Tories in Wakefield in West Yorkshire and Tiverton and Honiton in Devon in the early hours of Friday at his hotel in Kigali. It was extremely painful for him and his party.
Johnson won an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons in the 2019 general election, attracting prosperous middle-class voters along with Brexit blue-collar workers, but the by-election results suggest the coalition could fall apart.
Labor, winning Wakefield, has shown signs that they can take over the so-called “red wall” constituencies in the North of England and the Midlands, which the Conservatives seized in 2019.
Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, by capturing Tiverton and Honiton, have demonstrated their ability to secure former Conservative strongholds to the south.
The loss of the by-elections was complicated by the shocking departure of Oliver Dowden, chairman of the Conservative Party. Dowden, who clearly declared his loyalty to the party but not Johnson, said in his resignation letter: “We cannot continue with our usual business.”
Speaking to the media on Friday after a morning swim, Johnson did his best to give a bold face to the events. He suggested that the results of the by-elections were related to the cost of living crisis rather than his behavior in the party scandal.
“I do not want to downplay what voters say, but it is also true that post-war midterm elections lose elections,” he said. “We are facing pressure on the cost of living. . . jumps in fuel prices, energy costs, food costs that hit people. We have to admit that there is something else we have to do. “
Johnson held a strategic meeting with advisers, recruiting Chancellor Rishi Sunak from London.
The prime minister has insisted he will not cancel his visit to Rwanda or his attendance at two other international summits next week. It would be a “disclaimer” not to attend a G7 summit in Germany and “ridiculous” not to go to a NATO summit in Spain, said one of Johnson’s allies.
However, the prime minister will be aware of the dangers of being outside the country during political turmoil at home. Margaret Thatcher was at a summit in Paris in 1990, when the then prime minister learned that her leadership of the Conservative Party was in danger.
Johnson won a no-confidence vote in his leadership this month, but 41 percent of Tory MPs refused to support him, stressing how the scandal with the party had weakened his credibility.
In April, he became the first incumbent British prime minister found to have committed a crime after police fined him for attending a Downing Street birthday party during a blockade of Covid-19.
Under Tory rules, Johnson could not face a new no-confidence vote for a year, but the 1922 grandmasters in the back-seat Conservative committee are free to reconsider the arrangements if they wish.
Sir Jeffrey Clifton-Brown, the committee’s treasurer since 1922, declined to say whether the rules would be changed.
He told the BBC he expected Johnson to talk to Conservative MPs in the coming days about the results of the midterm elections. “Then we in the parliamentary party will have to decide whether we think this is a satisfactory explanation or whether we really need to take steps for a new prime minister,” Clifton-Brown added.
Whether or not Johnson faces a new no-confidence vote soon, the by-election results were a grim read for the prime minister and his aides.
Wakefield’s loss may seem at first glance to be the lesser of two defeats: the constituency in West Yorkshire by 2019 was in the hands of Labor for almost 90 years.
Labor secured a comfortable majority of 4,925, the party’s first Tory by-election victory in 10 years.
Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer tried to pull his party back to the center after a heavy left-wing blow to his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, and a major defeat in the 2019 election.
“The Tory party is absolutely shocking,” Starmer said Friday. “It simply came to our notice then.
But the result of the by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton is likely to give conservative strategists sleepless nights.
The Liberal Democrats turned the Tory majority of 24,239 into one of 6,144 for their party. This was the largest majority ever overturned in a by-election in terms of votes.
“Yes, these are by-elections and the usual rules of by-elections apply, but more than 290 Conservative MPs have a less secure seat than Tiverton and Honiton,” said Chris Hopkins of Savanta ComRes, the polling company.
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Lib Dem’s victory in Devon will cause a stir among Tory MPs in the south of England, although some will try to dismiss the result as a mid-term protest vote, as it is the third such by-election.
In June last year, Democrats overturned a majority of 16,223 Tories to take Chesham and Amersham in Buckinghamshire. Then in December, they won in North Shropshire, destroying a majority of 22,949 conservatives.
Sir Ed Davey, leader of Lib Dem, said: “The message from Tiverton and Honiton, the people here in Devon, is that Boris Johnson must leave. I think they have spoken on behalf of all the British people and it is really time to leave. “
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