On Wednesday, ministers pushed through a bill to tear up Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit trade deals for Northern Ireland, a move that none of the Tory leadership contenders contested.
The bill has poisoned relations with the EU, raising fears of a trade war and the prospect of British scientists being excluded from a €95bn research programme, but is expected to survive the leadership race.
Downing Street said the proposed legislation, which would replace parts of the protocol, was “concerted policy” and would continue to go through the House of Commons while outgoing Prime Minister Johnson leads a caretaker government.
The bill, which began its line-by-line stage in the House of Commons on Wednesday, is expected to face serious opposition when it reaches the House of Lords.
None of the Tory leadership contenders – including former chancellor Rishi Sunak, trade secretary Penny Mordaunt and foreign secretary Liz Truss – have committed to overturning it. Any such move would be unpopular with some Tory MPs and party members.
Sunak opposed the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill while in cabinet, warning it could lead to a crackdown by the EU. But the former chancellor on Monday assured members of the European Study Group, the Tories’ pro-Brexit caucus, in a private meeting that he would allow the bill to pass without amendment, according to those present.
One Sunak ally said, “Rishi would let the bill pass, but it would have a different tone.” A Sunak spokesman declined to comment.
One senior ERG source said they were reassured by Sunak’s comments, but said no senior member of the group was likely to back the former chancellor in the leadership race.
“We are interested in other things than Brexit,” the source said. “We have no commitments to reduce taxes. The vision he gave us was not one of hope – it was downright managerial.
The ERG met on Wednesday to discuss the leadership race, but the group – believed to number dozens of members – will not endorse any candidate, with support split between right-wing challengers Truss, Attorney General Suella Braverman and former Minister for of the tie Kemi Badenoch.
The fire near Rathcoole Manor in County Antrim © Paul McErlane/FT
One cabinet member predicted that even if the protocol bill reached the statute book, Johnson’s removal from Downing Street would make a negotiated settlement more likely.
“There is no trust at the moment, but a new leader would change everything,” said one cabinet minister, claiming that Brussels and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, would like to commit to a new leader – especially if it is Sunak.
One EU diplomat said: “A new face always counts. Gives the opportunity. One approach would be to expand the Northern Ireland discussion into a much broader attempt to reset the relationship.
Officials have speculated that areas of potential discussion as part of a grand Northern Ireland deal could include unblocking the UK’s membership of the Horizon Europe science program and the prospect of a vet deal to reduce border friction.
Truss introduced the protocol bill last month, saying it would “fix” practical problems with the agreement that Brussels refuses to address, but EU officials warn the legislation will exacerbate tensions.
Truss argued the protocol made it difficult to get goods to Northern Ireland from Britain and undermined the 1998 Good Friday Agreement between nationalists and unionists, which ended three decades of conflict.
The dispute over the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol, which has brought local politics in the region to a standstill, has hung over bonfires and parades organized annually by unionists and loyalists on July 11-12 to celebrate their British identity.
Richard Bell: “The protocol is a mess. They treat us like we’re not British’ © Paul McErlane/FT
One pyre, near the staunchly loyal Rathcoole estate in County Antrim, was decorated with signs reading “Protocol must go” and “Compromise = sell out” while a band played “Land of Hope and Glory”.
“I would like to see Liz Truss come in. She is tough on protocol and what I call the EU dictatorship,” said Richard Bell, 79, a retired electrical engineer, watching a marching band in north Belfast.
“The protocol is a mess. They treat us as if we are not British,” he added, as demonstrators marked the victory of the Protestant King William of Orange over the Catholic James II at the Battle of the Boyne in 1690.
Victor Molino: ‘I don’t think the Conservatives have anyone to put in place that I would trust’ © Paul McErlane/FT
The Democratic Unionist Party has paralyzed local politics by boycotting the region’s assembly and executive until the Irish Sea border is removed.
James McCluskey, 33, who works in banking, fears that if we “give an inch, then an inch, then an inch . . . eventually I will show my passport to go to Scotland”. He supported the proposal in the bill for a “green belt” for goods coming from Britain and remaining in Northern Ireland.
But while they celebrated their Britishness on the Twelfth, many Unionists showed little interest in who would become their next Prime Minister. “I don’t think the conservatives have anyone to put in place that I would trust,” said Victor Molino, 63, a truck driver.
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