Boris Johnson’s plans to reduce the number of civil servants by 91,000 – about 20% – within three years will leave Whitehall unable to cope with the huge additional burden caused by Brexit, independent experts and unions have warned the government.
They say such a reduction would leave the country too small to cope with the additional responsibilities assumed by Whitehall officials after the UK left the EU, including in the areas of trade, agriculture, immigration and business regulation.
This weekend, the TUC released figures showing that planned cuts will mean the ratio of civil servants to members of the UK population will fall below the lows recorded by former Chancellor George Osborne’s relentless austerity initiative when government officials were told reduce numbers to save up to 40% after the 2010 general elections.
TUC figures show that for every 10,000 UK citizens, the number of civil servants has fallen from 76 in 2010 to 59 in 2016, the year of the Brexit referendum. Until last year, to cope with the additional burden of planning and implementing Brexit, the numbers rose again to 70 for every 10,000 UK citizens.
However, if the three-year 91,000 reduction target is met, the TUC says the number of civil servants will fall to a new low from just 56 per 10,000 by 2025 – despite additional demands placed on the government by Brexit, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Cabinet ministers and permanent secretaries of all government departments have until the end of June to model scenarios involving cuts of 20%, 30% and 40% in the number of civil servants working for them. The total reduction of 91,000 is unlikely to be shared equally, which means that some parts of the government will be asked to cut by more than 20% and others by less.
Difficulties in governance, not to mention the success of Brexit while reducing the size of the state, are highlighted by separate data from the think tank of the Government Institute (IfG), which says that since 2016 the Ministry of Interior has added 8,400 employees, many of whom are managing new immigration policies and processing EU visas for the first time.
Both Defra (Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) and BEIS (Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy) have increased their staff by 5,000 since 2016, taking on the regulatory and political roles previously played by EU officials.
Rhys Klein, a senior researcher at IfG, told the Observer: “Ministers need to explain why they think the size of the civil service before Brexit in 2016 is the most effective size for the civil service almost a decade later in 2025.
“The UK government already has new post-Brexit responsibilities that will need to be provided with resources and cannot be abandoned or easily terminated.
Stephen Littlewood, assistant secretary general of the First Division Association, which represents senior government officials, said Whitehall had been cut to the bone.
“Given the new responsibilities that the government has after Brexit for areas such as borders, customs and agriculture, it is impossible to see how it can provide the services it currently has, with the proposed job losses. The government must be honest about what services it would cut if it reduced the number.
There are warnings that the cuts will worsen the delay in passport applications. Photo: Alami
Cabinet Minister Francis Maud, who oversaw the sharp decline in the number of civil servants in the coalition government led by David Cameron and Obsorn, has been tasked by Johnson to lead a review of how the civil service works in the future.
There are also warnings that reducing the number of officials will worsen delays in applications for passports, driver’s licenses and other government services.
Mark Servotka, secretary general of the Public and Trade Services Union, the largest civil servants’ union, said: telephone queues for those with tax returns.
“We will fight for every job in the civil service. Not only on behalf of our members, but also on behalf of every member of society who relies on the services they provide. ”
Prof. Anand Menon, director of the United Kingdom in a Changing Europe think tank, said Johnson’s problem was that Brexit required a larger state “not only to implement it in the short term, but to meet all these additional functions that Brexit will require the United Kingdom to perform. They range from the development and implementation of new policies in areas such as agriculture and trade policy, to the implementation of new regulatory functions, to the police management of our borders.
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