In one of the last days of the campaign in Honiton last week, an agitator from the Liberal Democrats found himself on the verge of a dilemma while fighting for every vote.
“I saw this house and there was a huge poster of the work on the railings outside. I thought ‘me or not?’ If I try, she’ll just say, “Can’t you see? Can’t you read?
He did knock, and a woman answered. “Yes, I will vote for Lib Dem,” she told him quickly. Slightly surprised at how easy this turned out to be, the worker wondered if he had heard correctly. “She told me yes, she is a Labor voter, but if she can’t get Liz Paul [the Labour candidate] above the line, then the next best thing for her and her husband was to vote for the Democrats.
The agitator, an experienced hand with many additional choices under his belt, then headed across the road and knocked on another door opposite. “A lady answered and said she was voting for Labor. So I pointed to the big sign on the other side of the road and said, “Do you know the lady across the street?”
He really did. In fact, she was baptized by Lib Dem. So the animator asked if she would like to talk to her friend about the election tactics, which she agreed to do. He left, hoping to take another important vote.
While the Liberal Democrats were by no means sure they would take Tiverton and Honiton about a week before election day, half an hour before polls closed at 9:30 p.m. last Thursday, things looked pretty rosy.
While polling stations in the Devon constituency were preparing to close, former leader Tim Farren was still out with a team, chasing people who had said they would vote for Lib Dem if the difference narrowed to just one or two. “Until then, I heard the data was pretty good, I must say,” said a party worker who was with Farron. “The votes of Labor were much lower and that was not because all these Labor had stayed at home. Much of this must have been a tactical vote. “
What happened in both Tiverton and Honiton, where the Liberal Democrats abolished the Tory majority of more than 24,000 to take a normal, completely safe place for the Conservatives with the help of Labor voters, and Wakefield, where Labor returned a traditional Tory stronghold with the help of Lib Dem votes, it was part of the anti-conservative “pliers movement” that struck fear at the heart of the Tory party.
Those who wanted to kick Boris Johnson and the Conservatives seem to have figured out how best to do it themselves. No pacts, no deals: just common sense. What terrifies the Tories and the Tory press is that if this kind of tactical voting catches up in the next general election, then the conservative majority of 80 in 2019 will be wiped out.
Labor leader Keir Starmer in Wakefield last week, a place in the “red wall” that Labor won back with the help of Lib Dem voters. Photo: Ian Forsyth / Getty Images
YouGov’s analysis found that there are 44 Tory-held seats where the combined vote of Labor and Liberals in the 2019 election is higher than the total number of Conservatives. So even if there were no Tory deserters, Boris Johnson’s majority would disappear if the maximum number of tactical votes were taken.
Former YouGov president Peter Kellner told the Guardian on Saturday: “The dramatic results in Wakefield, Tiverton and Honiton are certainly nearing the devastating end of the Richter scale. The reason is not only in the sharp decline in Conservative support, but in the fierce way in which tactical voting complicates the misery of the Tories. This makes the party more likely to lose power in the next election – even if the change in Wakefield was not enough to boost Labor hopes for a clear majority in the House of Commons.
While tactical voting played a major role in Labor’s convincing victory in 1997, it has recently gone out of style. Labor supporters are reluctant to support the Liberal Democrats after they joined a coalition supporting austerity led by Nick Clegg from 2010 to 2015. And recently, the Liberal Democrats still wanted nothing to do with a Labor party linked to its former leader Jeremy Corbyn.
But now Keir Starmer and Democrat leader Ed Davey are less polarizing figures and their parties are less repulsive.
The Tories and the right-wing press, seeing the threat, are trying to demonize this phenomenon as something that is not. Both are trying to portray Labor and the Liberal Democrats as conspirators in a conspiracy or pact that would lead them to form a SNP-backed coalition government; the future of the union will be at stake, with the price being a second referendum on Scottish independence. On Saturday, the headline on the front page of the Daily Mail quoted Sajid Javid, a health minister who wanted to know “the truth about [an] pact against the Tories. “
In fact, there is no need for a pact or agreement with the SNP. Common sense on the part of the electorate can easily suffice.
“The Tiverton and Honiton membership elections have shown that people are tired of this endless chaos and confusion and are calling for the right leadership,” Davy said. “The Liberal Democrats have drawn up a clear plan for Britain’s movement. We will tax the record profits of the banks, freeze the railway tickets and reduce the fuel duty in the rural areas in order to return the money in the pockets of the people. “
On Saturday, Davey told the Observer that Johnson had simply lost his ability to keep his precarious electoral coalition together, prompting voters to want him to come out in increasing numbers. “He kept a lot of plates spinning before – in the ‘red wall’, the ‘blue wall’ in Scotland and in the countryside – but people have seen through it,” he said.
“The source of this is Partygate, where people now see that it lacks integrity. The people who benefited from the doubt no longer trust him. He lost the ability to keep different people on board because his own reputation was so shattered.
So much so that more and more non-conservative voters now seem willing to think hard about how best to use their votes to get rid of it.
graphic
Tori’s places are at risk
Last week’s by-elections show that the Tories are now facing an electoral attack on several fronts, writes Michael Savage:
Rural constituencies
Winning Tiverton and Honiton, the Lib Dems showed once again that their machine for winning the by-elections is back well and really. It also raises hopes in the party that it could be strong again in a series of seats in the southwest where it was competitive before joining the coalition government in 2010. These are places that used to vote for Brexit and some now have big majority. Unlike Tiverton, however, many have a relatively recent history of voting for Lib Dem, and the party has identified activists in these areas. As the party is silent on Brexit and is now re-emerging as a place for protest votes, these places may be back in play.
The red wall
Following the Tories’ victory in 2019, British politics became obsessed with the concept of Red Wall seats, a group of Labor-formerly located mainly in the north and Midlands, where Brexit and concern for Jeremy Corbyn helped conservatives. to break through. . Recently, the term has become a general term for traditional Labor seats, which the party is now struggling to reclaim from the Tories. Labor suggests that their victory in the by-elections in Wakefield is a sign that Keira Starmer has succeeded in this task, which puts a group of about 40 places in sight.
The blue wall
In an effort to appeal to voters for Brexit and to pursue political “wedge” issues that they think they like, the Conservatives are creating problems in retaining another part of their electoral coalition – the more affluent, liberal and pro-Tories. previously supported the party under David Cameron and Theresa May. Issues such as Brexit, the policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda and blaming Labor for train strikes are less likely to keep them out. Both Liberal Democrats and Labor are turning to these places, which are often undergoing demographic change that makes them more difficult for the Tories. Another 40 seats, such as Escher and Walton, held by Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, could be in that group.
Scotland
While the Tories have only six Scottish MPs, both Labor and the Liberal Democrats believe that the better they do in England, the harder it will be for the Tories in Scotland. They say that once hesitant voters in Scotland see a chance to replace the Tory government in Westminster, they will stand behind Labor and further strengthen the Tories.
Add Comment