On 23 June 2016, just over half of the UK, 51.9%, voted to leave the European Union, sending shockwaves around the world as the UK embarked on the painful divorce process from the bloc.
The result also sowed the seeds of one of the most bifurcated periods in British political history with the resignation of two conservative prime ministers, the dismissal of 21 Tory rebels and a comprehensive victory for Boris Johnson on the back of his promise of an oven-ready Brexit deal.
Now, on the sixth anniversary of the referendum, one of the central figures in the prosecution of the deal has handed down his sentence: “Brexit works,” says Lord Frost, adding that those who say it is hitting the economy have a “grindstone.” .
So Frost’s claims are piling up?
David Frost insists Brexit works and claims critics have a “grind ax” – video
Does Brexit work?
Although it may be too early to say whether his claim can be supported by evidence, Frost was asked by Anand Menon, a professor of European policy and foreign affairs at King’s College London and director of the United Kingdom in a changing Europe, to he looked at it differently – what evidence in the future would convince him that Brexit had failed.
“An interesting question,” was his answer. And the answer was not in trade figures, but in intestinal policy. Would the British divisions be cured?
“One proof of failure would be if we were still discussing this in five or six years in the same way. I think that in order to succeed, it must be established in the British political system.
Economics – what Lord Frost says:
He said the 4% contraction in the UK’s gross domestic product used by the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) was not a fact, but “zombie figures” based on a 2018 government economic services report that relied on of academic research on the impact of opening up “poorly run former communist and former authoritarian autarchic economies”.
It referred to a 79-page report, Exit from the EU: A Technical Reference Document for Long-Term Economic Analysis, which examines five Brexit transaction models and their impact on the 12 regions of the United Kingdom, taking into account trade and non-trade barriers.
But Frost said his predictions “cannot be backed up by objective analysis” of growth in the UK “at almost the same pace as other G7 countries after the referendum and exports of goods to the EU” at the highest level ever ” .
He also argues that the exact impact of Brexit may never be known, as trade data has been clouded by disruptions caused by the pandemic, the supply chain crisis and the road to Ukraine.
What others say:
Four years later, OBR maintained its forecasts. His latest forecast from March 2022 was that the trade agreement with Frost “would reduce long-term productivity by 4% compared to staying in the EU”.
It says it reflects his view that “increasing non-tariff barriers” as bureaucracy, compliance with standards is “an obstacle to the use of a comparative advantage”.
Sign up for First Edition, our free daily newsletter – every weekday morning at 7am BST
OECD data show that the United Kingdom is ahead of France, Italy, Germany and Japan in the percentage change in its GDP between the last quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2022, but behind the EU as a whole and significantly behind the US, Australia and the G20 generally.
A report by the Resolution Foundation this week states that the UK has experienced a sharp decline in trade openness (total trade as a share of GDP) since 2019, falling by eight percentage points. That’s compared to a two percentage point drop for France, he added.
“The full effect of TCA [trade and cooperation agreement] it will take years to realize, but this movement towards a more closed economy, “the authors said.
Menon said: “Early evidence suggests that there is an impact on Brexit, and a recent analysis by the Resolution Foundation suggests that this will be significant in the medium term.
Protocol for Northern Ireland: what Frost says:
This remains an unfinished business for Brexit and the “biggest problem” caused by Britain’s exit from the EU. “The delicately balanced compromise we made in 2019, acknowledging that this puts us at high levels of risk, fell apart much faster than most of us thought,” Frost said.
He blamed the EU, which he said refused to compromise despite sensitivity.
What others say:
This is fully in line with government policy, which has been met with a chorus of disapproval from many parties and support within the Brexit community and conditional support from the Allied Community of Northern Ireland.
Anything else?
Reports over the weekend suggest that Frost had made some contribution to a controversial bill to remove parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
But the unsigned remarks suggest that there was no meeting of minds. He expressed surprise that the Article 16 mechanism had not been activated, pointing out that this would be a “faster” way to resolve the dispute with the EU.
This could reinforce the view that the government’s plan all along was to present legislation as a blunt negotiating tool.
Add Comment