FORT Lauderdale, Florida – The U.S. Supreme Court’s abortion ruling is expected to make Florida the epicenter of the state’s struggle in the coming months, raising the stakes of abortion rights defenders in the November election and complicating the Republican governor’s efforts. to manage both state and national political wealth.
Within hours of the court ruling, access to abortion emerged as a major line of cultural divisions in America. Thirteen conservative states with “trigger bans” will ban abortion within 30 days – and the procedure may soon be banned in several others. Lawmakers in the highly democratic northern and western states have promised to become a safe haven for women seeking abortion, but are barred from doing so at home.
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But in Florida, where residents of half a dozen relatively liberal urban districts are constantly locked in political duels with conservatives, who dominate most of the rest of the state, the debate over abortion rights is just beginning. This is an issue that will potentially have profound consequences for millions of women in the South. Sunshine’s new ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy could prove to be one of the most flexible in the region, with trigger laws and other unenforced abortion laws now likely to take effect in court.
“It’s a place we have to defend and defend because it’s a place where people come to get services,” said State Senator Lauren Buk (D), the Senate minority leader. “They’ve been biting the edges for a long time … but now it’s not hyperbolic to say it’s a very scary time for women in our state.”
How affordable abortion will remain in Florida may depend on how DeSantis plays out its competitive political ambitions and the winds of the November election. Some anti-abortion activists in Florida say they expect DeSantis, who has been widely mentioned as a possible Republican presidential candidate in 2024, to push for further restrictions or an outright ban on the procedure – a move to its main base here and primary voters in the whole country. But he could still face a competitive re-election as governor this fall in a state where he also needs to turn to more moderate votes.
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DeSantis describes himself as opposed to abortion, but rarely talks about the problem in public.
When a reporter asked on Thursday how he would react if Rowe v. Wade were overturned, the governor ignored the issue and talked about unrelated topics. On Friday, DeSantis issued a statement saying “the prayers of millions have been answered” by the Supreme Court ruling. But the statement provided some clues as to whether DeSantis’ plans were trying to further restrict access to abortion in Florida.
Anthony Verdugo, chairman of the Christian Family Coalition in Florida, said he expects conservative voters in both Florida and nationally to understand that DeSantis may not be able to provide everything that abortion advocates strive for.
“The governor will move forward in a way that best reflects the wishes of the people in the state,” Verdugo said. “And things may be different in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia than in Florida, so I expect there will be a very pragmatic and practical approach.”
This year, the Republican-controlled lawmaker in Florida passed legislation banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, which does not include exceptions for rape or incest. The law is due to take effect on July 1, but a state judge in Tallahassee is considering a lawsuit from abortion rights activists seeking to block the measure.
The state has 55 licensed abortion clinics, with 80,000 abortions performed in the last year. Recent polls across the state show that a strong majority opposes further restrictions on access.
Andrew Shirwell, director of the anti-abortion group Florida Voice for the Unborn, said he had received assurances from “senior members of Governor DeSantis’s staff” that the governor would convene U.S. lawmakers for a special session on access to abortion as early as mid-March. November, just after the midterm elections. The moment would mean that DeSantis could still try to avoid taking a hard line on the issue during his re-election campaign.
“Everything is subject to change and the ball is in his court, but I am very confident based on the discussions I have had that the governor is fully in line with that,” Shirwell said.
However, other opponents of Florida’s abortion rights remain skeptical that DeSantis will force the legislature to consider further restrictions before the start of the legislative session in March 2023.
John Stemberger, executive director of Florida Family Action, said he doubted DeSantis would call lawmakers into session before the regular session began in the spring. He expects conservative lawmakers to pass either a total ban on abortion or a “heart rate bill” that will ban the procedure after six weeks of pregnancy, the latter he says will most likely be passed by Republican lawmakers.
“There will definitely be a bill that will come out. There is no doubt about that, “said Stemberger, who added that he expects DeSantis to use his power as governor to push the legislature to act. “But I think what is being talked about the most is the heart rate bill.”
In addition to DeSantis’ re-election, voters will decide the composition of the Florida House and Senate in November. Republicans currently have a majority of 23 to 16 members in the Senate and 76 to 42 in the House of Representatives.
While Republicans remain preferred to retain both the governor’s position and their legislative majority, Democrats say the Supreme Court ruling has increased their chances of making the state election more competitive this year.
Last month, after the Supreme Court’s draft opinion leaked to the media, thousands of abortion advocates gathered for demonstrations in cities across Florida. Demonstrations also erupted in several Florida cities on Friday night.
“People are eager to bring back women to Tallahassee who support the election, Democrats who support the election because we are now at the forefront,” said Buk, the minority leader.
But Florida veteran political analyst Susan McManus said recently that she was unsure whether the abortion issue alone would be enough to overcome the Republican Party’s recent success in the state.
“There is anger and the problem is a big driver for older women, but you just have to wonder how many single voters there really are,” McManus said, noting that Florida women supported President Biden over former President Donald Trump in 2020 with a difference of only three percentage points, according to exit polls. “So the Democrats are betting on abortion, but I’m just not sure that’s enough.
Yet, even if Democrats fail to make significant gains in the legislature, Goodhu and other activists say they are still unsure whether incoming Senate leaders will want to go beyond the existing 15-week Florida ban.
U.S. Sen. Kathleen Pasidomo, a Republican representing the Naples region, is expected to be the next Senate president if the Republican Party retains its majority in that chamber. Although they publicly oppose abortion, Goodhu and Buk said Pasidomo has been reluctant to adopt the most comprehensive versions of anti-abortion legislation in the past.
“The future president of the Senate and I have had many, many, many talks on this issue,” Buk said. “She knows it’s important to me and we certainly don’t agree with life against choice, but I think we both agree that there should be exceptions to life, incest and human trafficking, because it’s just human decency.
Passidomo rejected an interview request. But in a statement, Pasidomo reiterated that it was “for life.”
“The Florida people I talk to on a daily basis strongly support the steps taken by the literature to protect unborn life, encourage adoption, and support parents who have chosen life,” Pasidomo said.
At the Florida House, at least one Republican who backed a 15-week abortion ban now says he will not support attempts to impose even broader restrictions. Chip LaMarca, who is part of the highly democratic Broward County, voted for the 15-week ban, but said in an interview that he would not support legislation to further restrict access.
“This should be rare and extreme,” he said of abortion. “But I believe someone should be able to make that choice in 15 weeks.”
But in the coming weeks, activists on both sides of the abortion debate will be watching DeSantis closely, who has a rather limited number of close advisers and often does not herald his political or legislative actions.
Most analysts agree that DeSantis probably doesn’t want the issue to dominate the headlines in Florida in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 8 election.
In Florida, however, newly elected U.S. lawmakers met just weeks after the election. Shirwell said that was why he had received assurances from the governor’s office that a special session on abortion could take place in late November.
“I think he’s realizing he’s going to win the Republican primary [for president]whether in 2024 or 2028, he should be at the forefront of life, “Shirwell said, adding that primary GOP voters could compare DeSantis to another possible GOP presidential candidate, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.” Abbott will be able to stand first and list all the things he has done for the unborn in his country, and DeSantis will have to go back to apologizing. “
Buk said DeSantis’s current management approach did not comfort her that the governor would deviate from another battle for abortion rights.
“Because the House, the Senate and the governor are controlled by the Republicans, they will do whatever they want because they can,” Buk said.
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