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“You have a liberal base where, if you ask them who would be the best prime minister, less than half of them are willing to say Stephen Del Duca,” he said.
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May 25, 2022 • 41 minutes ago • 4 minutes reading • 42 comments Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford stops campaign at the Institute of Finishing Crafts in Ontario, North York, Ontario, on Tuesday, May 17, 2022 Photo: Christopher Katsarov / The Canadian press
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With the Ontario election coming to a head, indications suggest a tumultuous session as Doug Ford’s computers prepare for a second term for the Queen’s Park majority.
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The latest Postmedia / Leger poll on Wednesday shows that the Tories have a strong lead throughout the campaign, with 38% of those polled intending to vote for PC.
Stephen Del Duca’s Liberals fell from 28 percent to 26 percent last week, with the NDP up one to 24 percent.
Mike Schreiner’s Green Party received six percent support, while Jim Carachalios’ New Blues won three percent, one point ahead of Derek Sloan’s party in Ontario.
But while almost every poll portends another big computer victory, McMaster political science professor Peter Greif said the tie could have something to say about it.
“As Andrea Horvat’s latest action, does she have rabbits to take out of her hat to persuade a bunch of these liberal voters to come to the NDP?” He asked.
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About 44% of respondents said their decision was not final.
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Of the three major parties, Liberal supporters were the least staunch, with only 43 percent saying their decision had been made.
This is compared to 64% of PC voters and 67% of NDP supporters, who say their vote is final.
A curious figure in many polls – including Leger’s figures – suggests that the Ontario Liberal Party is bubbling with discontent, especially over confidence in their leader.
“You have a liberal base where if you ask them who would be the best prime minister, less than half of them are ready to say Stephen Del Duca,” Gref said.
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When asked who they think will form the next Ontario government, only 35% of declared Liberal voters said Del Duca, while 41% of the same people believe that Doug Ford’s victory is inevitable.
Only 45% of liberals said Del Duca was the best choice for prime minister – compared to 81% of personal computers, 73% of the NDP and 54% of the Greens, who believe the party leader is the man who runs the province. .
“This is an incredible sign of disappointment in the (liberal) campaign,” Gref explained.
“This is also the party with the softest vote for people who say they can vote for another party – you know their decision is not firm.”
Fifty-five percent of all respondents said Ford computers would form the next government, the first time it exceeded 50 percent.
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Twenty-two percent said Del Duca or Horvat would win, one point less than those who said “I don’t know.”
Leger’s Andrew Ens said this illustrated the challenges facing liberals in breaking the message on the computer.
“Stephen Del Duca has probably not strengthened his good faith with the electorate,” he said.
When asked to rank a series of attributes for the leaders of the big three parties, respondents described “offline” (26 percent), “carefree” (25 percent) and “doing things” (25 percent). cent) of Ford.
The attributes attributed to Horvat were almost statistically linked between “not ready to rule” and “ready to rule”.
At 29 percent, the highest attribute attributed to the Liberal leader is “I don’t know,” with “not ready to rule” and “boring” finishing in the top three.
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There is a possibility that Andrea Horvat will find another four or five percent of the electorate
Peter Greif
Just under 70 percent of Liberal voters chose the NDP as their second choice, making the New Democrats the first second choice for all declared voters.
“There is a possibility that Andrea Horvat will find another four or five percent of the electorate,” Gref said.
“Figures are available for the possibility of a late jump in the NDP.”
Survey data show that support for the NDP is growing, Enns agreed – which could lead to some interesting results on election night.
“Some surprises are possible,” he said, explaining that some highly contested regions – including Hamilton / Niagara and even Toronto – could lead to one or two surprises.
“There’s a scenario where computers are coming back with a potentially increased majority,” Jens said
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“The way the separation is going, they could come back with a few extra seats than they came in.”
As the NDP and the Liberals are unlikely to form a government on June 2, questions remain about the future of both leaders after election day.
“This is her best chance to become prime minister, and if it doesn’t work out, I suspect she could move on,” Gref told Horvat.
The poll was conducted from May 20 to 23 by a panel of 1,503 randomly selected Ontario voters with a margin of error of ± 2.5 percent, 19 times 20.
• Email: bpassifiume@postmedia.com | Twitter: bryanpassifiume
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