While Tampa Bay Lightning await their opponent in the Eastern Conference final, New York and Carolina are tied 2-2 after the Rangers pulled even last night.
This is the only series that is not facing elimination, so let’s break four keys to this series through four games:
Power in the network
Goalkeeping was a big story for both teams in this series. Everyone knows how dominant Igor Shesterkin was in the regular season, saving the league leader 40.7 goals more than expected, 25 quality starts and nine stolen victories. Although he slipped in games 3 and 4 of 1 round, he was otherwise elite, as expected.
In this series, Shesterkin won a brilliant save rate of 0.959 and stopped with 5.8 goals above expectations against all the attempts to strike, which he faced in all situations. In a total of 11 games, he has a rescue rate of .925 and a GSAx of +7.
On the other side is Anti Raanta. The storylines were more about the hurricane’s fold as a whole, given the state of Frederick Andersen’s injury. But the backup works with the fold of the starter, winning a save rate of .936 and stopping by 2.8 goals more than expected. In a total of 10 playoff games, he already has a save rate of .931 and a GSAx of 3.9.
Both teams have strength in the net, which keeps this series closer than expected, given the teams before the blue.
The five-on-five game is closer than expected
Based on the regular season, Carolina had an advantage over her opponents from round 2 at 5-on-5. The Rangers may have achieved some results in these situations thanks to their talent for completion and rescue, but beneath the surface they painted a more disturbing picture.
New York managed to clear the game in its own zone after the deadline and improved in attack. Of course, they all fell apart in Round 1, casting more doubt on what the series would look like, especially in view of the Hurricanes’ aggressive pre-screening.
But Rangers are holding the pace better than expected and that’s why this series is level. Hurricanes are still the stronger team that holds the blue line and prolongs the zone’s time. They also try to make a lot of passes in the offensive zone and generate more shots.
This allows New York to work hard and they do their best to block passes and high-speed shots to limit the chances of quality or cyclical shots. Although Carolina could create chances for a goal after a quick attack, Canes made only 4.83 attempts from the slot outside the cycle, which was a strong point in their game during the regular season.
Another strength was limiting these chances against; Carolina was one of the best, but still allowed 6.65 attempts from Rangers.
Carolina still has a slight advantage in the expected goals, with 8.35 to four games. But they do not have a goal to show it, having scored only four goals so far.
As much as they test Shesterkin with impact volume, the Rangers are doing their best to keep their quality strike generation as even as possible. Conversely, New York tested Raanta with a slightly higher percentage of slot hits. They have generated 7.65 expected goals, for which they have collected five results.
Carolina can’t win on the road
The Hurricanes have played 11 games so far and all six losses have come from PNC Arena. The advantage is that they have homemade ice, so if it lasts seven, the last slope will not be on the road. But it is particularly curious how long this trend has lasted.
Maybe it’s a matter of the match – the Bruins managed to push the line of Sebastian Aho, equalizing them against Patrice Bergeron. Or that in this round the Rangers can get Mika Zibanedjad out of Jordan Staal, after the Kanes trio did everything possible to suppress the top line of New York.
Carolina played well in Madison Square Garden, especially in Game 3, but there were no results to show. So, it’s not just this team that crashes on the road. But that’s something to look forward to, because while the Hurricanes will keep the home ice if they make it to the next series, it’s an obstacle they’ll have to prove to themselves that they can get through.
The impact of Ryan Lindgren
The Rangers fought without one of their best defenders in the first round, while Ryan Lindgren was away with … what we imagine are countless injuries at the moment.
Without him, Adam Fox was left in an unbalanced pair with Justin Brown. And the third pair Patrick Nemeth and Braden Schneider are also fighting. This put even more pressure on K’Andre Miller and Jacob Trumpet against an elite trio in Pittsburgh led by Sidney Crosby. Although a player should not draw or break a blue line when depth is an issue, it can throw everything away.
Of the main pairs, Rangers Fox and Lindgren lead with 56% of the expected percentage of goals at the same strength. The left-back’s defensive play helps complement Fox’s elite two-way game, and this is shown in particular in this series. Lindgren can separate opponents from the puck with his physical game or stick, while Fox uses his wand and intelligent positioning to limit games against. And the league knows what the current trophy winner Norris can do with the puck on his stick.
This pair was key for the Rangers in their minutes together and this was shown in Game 4 on the way to the evening of this series. Attempts to strike were 15-14 in favor of New York with deployed, but how they worked to limit the quality chances against, is what really stood out. Carolina managed only one slot attempt against those two on the ice, while New York generated nine.
All the while, this duo saw a lot from both the Aho line and Vincent Trocheck. New York knows what it looks like without Fox and Lindgren leading the way at the back end, so they have to bring this strong game back to Carolina to make noise in this series.
Data via Sportlogiq
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