French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a tough battle to win an absolute majority in parliament, which will allow him to rule with his hands free after the strong performance of a new left-wing alliance in Sunday’s first-round election.
Estimates based on partial election results show that at the national level, Macron’s party and its allies received about 25 to 26 percent of the vote. They were at the door with a new left-wing coalition made up of hard-line supporters, socialists and green parties.
Still, Macron’s candidates are expected to win in more constituencies than their left-wing rivals, giving the president a majority.
More than 6,000 candidates ran for 577 seats in the French National Assembly in the first round of elections.
France’s two-hour voting system is complex and disproportionate to national party support. For competitions that did not have a decisive winner on Sunday, up to four candidates who received at least 12.5 percent support will compete in the second round of voting on June 19th.
A voter released the ballot in Marseille, southern France, on Sunday. (Daniel Cole / Associated Press)
Following Macron’s re-election in May, his centrist coalition sought an absolute majority to allow it to deliver on its campaign promises, which include tax cuts and raising the retirement age in France from 62 to 65.
Still, Sunday’s forecast shows that Macron’s party and allies may have trouble winning more than half the seats in the National Assembly, far less than five years ago, when they won 361 seats. Sociological agencies have estimated that Macron’s centrists could win 255 to more than 300 seats, while the NUPES bloc, led by hardline leader Jean-Luc Melanchon, could win more than 200 seats.
The National Assembly has the final say on the Senate when it comes to passing laws.
Turnout on Sunday reached a record low for parliamentary elections, with less than half of France’s 48.7 million voters voting. Consumer concerns about rising inflation dominated the campaign, but voter enthusiasm was dampened.
The lack of an absolute majority for Macron would force him to sign unruly pacts on a bill with right-wing parties and could cause a change in the cabinet.
No poll shows that NUPES wins a ruling majority – a scenario that would throw France into an unstable period of coexistence in which the president and prime minister come from different political groups.
Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon spoke to supporters in Marseille on Sunday. (Daniel Cole / Associated Press)
Melenchon’s platform includes a significant increase in the minimum wage, lowering the retirement age to 60 and fixing energy prices that are rising as a result of the war in Ukraine. He is an anti-globalist who called on France to leave NATO and “disobey” European Union rules.
Macron defeated far-right rival Marine Le Pen in the presidential run-off, and France’s parliamentary elections have traditionally been a tough race for far-right candidates. Rivals from other parties tend to coordinate or withdraw to increase the chances of defeating far-right candidates in the second round of voting.
Far-right leader Marine Le Pen leaves the voting booth in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, on Sunday. (Michelle Spingler / Associated Press)
Le Pen’s far-right national rally hopes to do better than five years ago, when he won eight seats. With at least 15 seats, the far right will be able to form a parliamentary group and gain greater powers in the National Assembly.
Le Pen herself is a re-election candidate in her fortress of Henin-Beaumont in northern France, where she voted on Sunday.
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